Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and James Downs of National Journal’s Hotline analyze the fight for the House majority, the 10 key Toss-up races, and some potential surprise races in places that haven’t been competitive for years. The episode also includes Jacob’s recent purchase of a political plate, James’s journey to…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
The GOP majority in the House is at risk and will likely be the most consequential battle in 2026, while Senate Republicans might be insulated from a midterm backlash.
Typically, midterm elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the House. Winning…
Alabama.
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt), Shomari Figures, D, elected 55%. Harris 54%. There’s little appetite among Republicans to take on Figures unless court decisions allow Alabama to redraw its congressional map. Solid Democratic.
Alaska.
At-Large, Nick Begich, R, elected 51%. Trump 55%. Unless former…
Kansas.
3rd District (Kansas City suburbs) Sharice Davids, D, re-elected 53%. Harris 51%. Davids has earned a reputation as a tough competitor and extracts a grudging respect from Republicans, who don’t see her as a serious target this cycle. Solid Democratic.
Kentucky.
6th District (Greater Lexington area) Andy…
North Carolina.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D, re-elected 49.5%. Trump 51%. Laurie Buckhout, the 2024 nominee who lost to Davis by less than 2 points, could run again though GOP strategists are skeptical she will take the plunge. Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who placed…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Briana Bierschbach of the Minnesota Star-Tribune analyze the fight for the Minnesota Senate seat left behind by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, talk about whether DFL Gov. Tim Walz will seek a historic third term and look ahead to who might run for Rep. Angie…
When New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is ultimately confirmed as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, voters in the Empire State’s 21st District will elect a new representative for the first time in a decade.
The special election to replace the rising GOP star may also develop into…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analyze the top three biggest races for governor in the 2026 cycle, the three most difficult races to rate at this early stage, and what’s ahead for the 2025 races for governor in Virginia and…
Arizona’s 6th District. Democratic single-mom/retired Marine JoAnna “Jo” Mendoza announced her challenge to GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in a competitive, suburban district southeast of Phoenix. Ciscomani won re-election by 2.5 points in one of the most competitive races in the country with help from Donald Trump at the of the…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Melissa Nann Burke of the Detroit News analyze Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to run for re-election in the battleground state of Michigan, discuss the candidates who might run, and the impact of the Senate race on the race for governor and key House…
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