House News & Analysis

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): Alabama - Iowa

by Jacob Rubashkin March 7, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

Alabama. 
2nd District (Mobile, Montgomery, and eastern Black Belt), Shomari Figures, D, elected 55%. Harris 54%.
There’s little appetite among Republicans to take on Figures unless court decisions allow Alabama to redraw its congressional map. Solid Democratic.

Alaska.
At-Large, Nick Begich, R, elected 51%. Trump 55%.
Unless former…

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): Kansas - New York

March 7, 2025 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas.
3rd District (Kansas City suburbs) Sharice Davids, D, re-elected 53%. Harris 51%.
Davids has earned a reputation as a tough competitor and extracts a grudging respect from Republicans, who don’t see her as a serious target this cycle. Solid Democratic.

Kentucky.
6th District (Greater Lexington area) Andy…

2026 House Overview (March 7, 2025): North Carolina - Wisconsin

March 7, 2025 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D, re-elected 49.5%. Trump 51%.
Laurie Buckhout, the 2024 nominee who lost to Davis by less than 2 points, could run again though GOP strategists are skeptical she will take the plunge. Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who placed…

Podcast Episode 41: Minnesota Senate, Governor, 2nd District w/ Briana Bierschbach of Star-Tribune

February 28, 2025 · 11:00 AM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Briana Bierschbach of the Minnesota Star-Tribune analyze the fight for the Minnesota Senate seat left behind by retiring Democratic Sen. Tina Smith, talk about whether DFL Gov. Tim Walz will seek a historic third term and look ahead to who might run for Rep. Angie…

New York 21 Special: Delayed Opportunity

by Jacob Rubashkin February 20, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

When New York Rep. Elise Stefanik is ultimately confirmed as the next U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, voters in the Empire State’s 21st District will elect a new representative for the first time in a decade.

The special election to replace the rising GOP star may also develop into…

Podcast Episode 40: Top Governors Races and Ratings w/ Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report

February 13, 2025 · 1:08 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Jessica Taylor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analyze the top three biggest races for governor in the 2026 cycle, the three most difficult races to rate at this early stage, and what’s ahead for the 2025 races for governor in Virginia and…

Report Shorts (Feb. 6, 2025)

February 6, 2025 · 2:26 PM EST

Arizona’s 6th District. Democratic single-mom/retired Marine JoAnna “Jo” Mendoza announced her challenge to GOP Rep. Juan Ciscomani in a competitive, suburban district  southeast of Phoenix. Ciscomani won re-election by 2.5 points in one of the most competitive races in the country with help from Donald Trump at the of the…

Podcast Episode 39: Surprise Michigan Senate Retirement Reaction w/ Melissa Burke of Detroit News

January 30, 2025 · 12:32 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Melissa Nann Burke of the Detroit News analyze Democratic Sen. Gary Peters’ decision not to run for re-election in the battleground state of Michigan, discuss the candidates who might run, and the impact of the Senate race on the race for governor and key House…

The Primary is the Ballgame in Two Florida House Specials

by Jacob Rubashkin January 24, 2025 · 2:29 PM EST

Republicans held onto their narrow majority in 2024, but President Donald Trump’s cabinet selections made the margin in the House even closer.

Matt Gaetz only spent a week as President Donald Trump’s attorney general nominee before withdrawing from consideration, but he still resigned his Florida Panhandle congressional seat ahead of…

Report Shorts (Jan. 24, 2025)

January 24, 2025 · 2:27 PM EST

Alabama Governor. Gov. Kay Ivey is term-limited, setting up a competitive GOP primary to replace her. Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth had said he’d make up his mind in February or March, but now says he’ll wait until the upcoming legislative session ends in May. Agriculture Commissioner Rick Pate said he’d…