Redistricting News & Analysis

Podcast Episode 70: O-H I-O primaries w/ Henry J. Gomez of NBC News

April 28, 2026 · 4:57 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Henry J. Gomez of NBC News break down all of the upcoming primaries in Ohio. The trio also analyzes whether incumbent Democrats Marcy Kaptur, Greg Landsman and Emilia Sykes or Republicans representatives Max Miller and Mike Turner will be returning to Congress, takes an early…

Virginia House: Four House Races Shift To Democrats

by Jacob Rubashkin April 21, 2026 · 9:53 PM EDT

Updated April 23, 11:51am

Virginia voters approved a new congressional map on Tuesday that will help Democrats flip as many as four GOP-held seats this fall. The referendum passed, 51.5-48.6 percent, roughly half of the margin that Kamala Harris posted against President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Republican…

Podcast Episode 66: The Land of Illinois Primaries w/ Shia Kapos of Politico

February 27, 2026 · 2:05 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Shia Kapos of Politico's Illinois Playbook dive deep into the upcoming Illinois primaries including the Democratic race to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin and a handful of crowded and competitive House primaries, where as little as 20 percent of the vote could be enough to effectively…

Podcast Episode 65: Even Primaries are Big in Texas w/ Gabby Birenbaum of Texas Tribune

February 12, 2026 · 1:49 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune run down the biggest primaries in Texas including the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries and run through the Republican and Democratic House incumbents who might not even get renominated. Also, Jacob can’t stop watching reality TV, Gabby plugs the…

House: Money Isn’t Enough to Save Incumbents in Wave Elections

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 11, 2026 · 10:46 AM EST

Fundraising is a critical part of winning reelection, but sometimes incumbents have political problems that money can’t fix. 

When voter sentiment is against you, outspending your opponent isn’t sufficient to survive an electoral wave. This is important context when analyzing campaign fundraising reports.

While there can be confusion over what…

Report Shorts (January 22, 2026)

January 22, 2026 · 2:22 PM EST

California’s 1st District. The special election to replace the late-GOP Rep. Doug LaMalfa will be August 4, the latest possible date that could be set by Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom in accordance with state law. It’s technically possible that a new member could get elected in the June 2 primary,…

Podcast Episode 62: Holiday Mailbag with Nathan & Jacob

December 22, 2025 · 1:35 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin tackle tough end-of-the-year questions with a holiday mailbag episode. From the state of the midterm elections, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez’s electoral future, and each party’s recruitment holes in the fight for the House to the Roman Empire, Star Trek and the Seattle Seahawks, Jacob and Nathan cover…

Podcast Episode 61: “I Know Nothing About Anything But Politics” with Larry Sabato

December 11, 2025 · 3:33 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin cover the latest House and Senate election news and discuss the art of political analysis with the University of Virginia’s Larry Sabato, one of the most prominent analysts in the country. 

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

It’s Beginning to Look a Lot Like … a Traditional Midterm Election

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 4, 2025 · 8:00 AM EST

The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political savant, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm. 

There's a perception that normal rules don't apply to Trump, who…

Podcast Episode 60: What Should Republicans, Democrats be Thankful For? w/ Kirk Bado of NJ’s Hotline

November 26, 2025 · 3:08 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Kirk Bado of National Journal’s Hotline celebrate Thanksgiving by prescribing what Republicans, Democrats and even President Donald Trump should be thankful for in this holiday season. Jacob and Kirk also discuss good and bad recent movies while Nathan is thankful for the Seattle Seahawks star…