House News & Analysis

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Can Redistricting Cushion Potential Fall?

September 11, 2025 · 2:00 PM EDT

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Approaching halfway through the cycle, the fight for the House majority remains the marquee event of the midterms. While the Senate usually gets more of the attention, the size of the GOP majority and slate of states on the ballot has made that…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama - Iowa

September 11, 2025 · 1:59 PM EDT

Alabama. Filing deadline Jan. 23. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Open; Barry Moore, R, running for Senate. Trump 77%. Former Rep. Jerry Carl is seeking his old seat back after losing to Moore in a member vs. member primary last year. The…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky - New York

September 11, 2025 · 1:58 PM EDT

Kentucky. Filing deadline Jan. 9. Primary May 19.
6th District (Greater Lexington area) Open; Andy Barr, R, running for Senate. Trump 57%. Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, state Rep. Ryan Dotson, and state Rep. Deanna Frazier Gordon make up the GOP primary field. On the Democratic side, former state…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina - Wisconsin

by Jacob Rubashkin September 11, 2025 · 1:57 PM EDT

North Carolina. Filing deadline Dec. 19. Primary March 3. Runoff (if necessary) May 12.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D, re-elected 49.5%. Trump 51%. National Republican strategists like Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who narrowly lost the 2022 GOP primary. He’s personally wealthy and has already…

Podcast Episode 54: Big Texas Senate Primary + Redistricting w/ Gabby Birenbaum of Texas Tribune

September 9, 2025 · 11:09 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune break down the critical Republican primary in the Texas Senate race between Sen. John Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton and analyze the five individual House seats most affected by Republicans’ mid-decade redistricting effort encouraged by President Donald…

House & Senate Report Shorts (Aug. 28, 2025)

August 28, 2025 · 2:26 PM EDT

Connecticut’s 1st District. State Rep. Jillian Gilchrest filed to run, but it’s not clear whether she’s planning to challenge long-time Rep. John Larson in the Democratic primary or expects there to be an open seat. Roll Call’s Daniela Altimari pointed out that Gilchrest took on the West Hartford Democratic machine…

Podcast Episode 53: OH-IO Senate Rating Change + Redistricting w/ Kyle Kondik of Crystal Ball

August 21, 2025 · 3:37 PM EDT

Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin along with Kyle Kondik of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia dive into the Ohio Senate race where former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown is challenging Republican Sen. Jon Husted, who was appointed to replace Vice President J.D. Vance, in a…

A Detailed Analysis of California’s (Maybe) New Congressional Map

by Nathaniel Rakich August 21, 2025 · 1:49 PM EDT

If you thought the midterm elections wouldn’t start until 2026, think again. Control of multiple House seats will now effectively be decided this fall.

The California Legislature is soon expected to advance a new congressional map for the Golden State that is heavily biased in Democrats’ favor. It’s the party’s…

Parties Engage in Redistricting Arms Race

by Jacob Rubashkin August 14, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

In a typical decade, every state redraws its congressional map just once, following the decennial Census. While isolated court rulings may result in a handful of new maps after that, the life expectancy of a congressional district is generally 10 years.

That conventional wisdom is being tested like never before…

Podcast Episode 52: 2026 Senate Map + New Senate Race Ratings

July 24, 2025 · 3:19 PM EDT

Inside Elections' Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin focus on the 2026 Senate map including a deep dive into four most important states at the core of the battleground (Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina) as well as other important states to watch including Iowa, Texas, Alaska, New Hampshire and Minnesota.…