Virginia Caps Off Wild Week of Redistricting Ratings Changes
The Virginia State Supreme Court struck down Democrats’ ambitious redistricting plan in the Old Dominion on Friday. The map, which was designed to elect 10 Democrats and just one Republican, was approved by voters in a statewide referendum last month.
The decision is an exclamation point on a madcap week of redistricting that began with Florida passing an aggressive new GOP-drawn map and then saw Tennessee dismantle its last remaining majority-Black, Solid Democratic district.
Factoring in today’s shifts in Virginia, Inside Elections has made 12 House ratings changes this week due to redistricting, with 11 in favor of Republicans and 1 in favor of Democrats: five in Virginia, five in Florida, and two in Tennessee.
Following those changes, Republicans are favored to win seven more seats than they were on Monday.
Virginia
Our ratings will revert to where they were before the April 21 referendum.
1st District. GOP Rep. Rob Wittman will still face a competitive race, likely against Henrico Commonwealth’s Attorney Shannon Taylor, but the partisan lean of the district is again in his favor. Move from Solid Democratic to Lean Republican.
2nd District. GOP Rep. Jen Kiggans’ Virginia Beach-based district remains largely the same but is a bit more favorable to Republicans now. You can read a full analysis of this race in the May 7 issue of Inside Elections. Move from Tilt Democratic to Toss-up.
5th District. GOP Rep. John McGuire is the clear favorite against likely…
