Could Democrats Break the Texas Gerrymander?
A strong showing among Latino voters in last week’s elections has some Democrats wondering if the party can turn Texas Republicans’ dream gerrymander into a nightmare next year. But even under the rosiest scenarios, Democrats will be hard-pressed to make significant inroads in the Lone Star State with the new lines.
In New Jersey, Democrat Mikie Sherrill won statewide by 14 points and benefitted from big margins in the most heavily Latino parts of the state, such as Passaic County, where she ran 18 points ahead of then-Vice President Kamala Harris’ 2024 margin. In Virginia, Democrat Abigail Spanberger outran Harris across the state but most notably in heavily Latino areas such as Manassas and Manassas Park.
“The swing in the Latino vote is really important,” said Fox News co-host Jessica Tarlov the day after the election. “It's swung all the way back. Republicans on the state level are starting to panic about the gerrymander plans because that Texas gerrymander only works if you are going to get 2024 Latino margins.”
President Donald Trump won the Latino vote in Texas in 2024 by 10 points, according to the Edison Research exit poll. That was a significant increase from 2020, when exit polling indicated he lost Texas Latinos by 17 points and especially from 2016, when he lost Texas Latinos by 27 points.
When Republicans redrew Texas’ congressional map earlier this year, they targeted five Democratic-held seats across the state: the Houston-based 9th, the…
