Maine 2: Open Seat Shifts Toward Republicans
November 5, 2025 · 4:03 PM EST
Rep. Jared Golden brought Democrats back down to earth by announcing he won’t seek re-election in Maine’s 2nd District. His decision makes it extremely difficult for Democrats to hold the most Republican seat currently held by a Democrat.
The 2nd voted for Donald Trump in three straight elections, by margins of 9 points, 6 points, and 9 points in 2016, 2020, and 2024.
Republicans already had a credible challenger in former Gov. Paul LePage, who has carried the rural seat in his multiple statewide runs. Now LePage is the frontrunner while Democrats take a fresh look for candidates. State Auditor Matt Dunlap was challenging Golden in the primary and has a head start on other Democrats looking to jump into the race, but there’s plenty of skepticism among national operatives that he’d be able to beat LePage. Former state Senate president Troy Jackson is currently running for governor but has sought the 2nd District before and could switch races.
We’ll have more analysis to come on the district, but for now, we’re changing our rating from Tilt Democratic to Likely Republican, in a positive development for the GOP and making it more challenging for Democrats to gain the three seats they need for a majority.