Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Adam Levy of the BBC analyze the impact of tariffs, immigration and President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in local economies in key states including Ohio and Florida ahead of the midterm elections and discuss how U.S. election coverage has changed over the years and how…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Laura Weiss of Punchbowl News analyze how President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty of the economy and stock market affect his relationship with Republicans on Capitol Hill and how it could threaten Republicans’ majority in the House and the Senate in next year’s midterm…
What are the sleeper races? That’s one of the most common questions every election cycle, but there isn’t always a clear answer.
Identifying the most competitive races isn’t all that tough. Just look at seats with close races in the past or the districts that featured tens of millions of…
Jacob Rubashkin and Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report w/ Amy Walter talk through the potential for a Democratic upset in the special election for Florida's 6th District, as well as what we'll learn from the outcome there and in Florida's 1st District. The episode also touches on upcoming…
A special election in Central Florida to fill National Security Advisor Michael Waltz’s congressional seat is attracting a crush of national spending and attention in its final week.
Republicans remain favored to hold Florida’s 6th Congressional District, albeit by a narrower margin than the district’s underlying partisanship would suggest. Elsewhere…
Colorado’s 8th District is one of America’s newest House seats but it has already established itself as one of the most competitive. Just one of two districts where the winning candidate’s margin of victory was less than 1 percent in both 2022 and 2024, the 8th is a crucial step…
In their quest to flip three seats and reclaim the House majority, Democrats are primarily focused on GOP incumbents in seats where Kamala Harris finished ahead of Donald Trump and seats where Trump won narrowly.
But one of the party’s top targets is neither of those things. Iowa’s 1st District…
Arizona’s 7th District Special. Gov. Katie Hobbs scheduled a July 15 primary and September 23 special election to replace the late Rep. Raúl Grijalva. No major candidates have announced their intention to run yet, but state Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is considering a bid. Grijalva’s daughter, Adelita Grijalva, is…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and James Downs of National Journal’s Hotline analyze the fight for the House majority, the 10 key Toss-up races, and some potential surprise races in places that haven’t been competitive for years. The episode also includes Jacob’s recent purchase of a political plate, James’s journey to…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
The GOP majority in the House is at risk and will likely be the most consequential battle in 2026, while Senate Republicans might be insulated from a midterm backlash.
Typically, midterm elections go poorly for the president’s party, particularly in the House. Winning…
