House News & Analysis

Pennsylvania 7: Long Road Ahead in the Lehigh Valley

by Jacob Rubashkin May 15, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

With Republicans clinging to a narrow House majority, Pennsylvania’s 7th District is on the frontline of the GOP’s battle to maintain control. A perpetual bellwether held by a freshman Republican, the 7th is close to a must-win for Democrats next year.

But the diverse district presents hurdles that mirror the…

Arizona 7 Special: The Tussle in Tucson

by Jacob Rubashkin May 15, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

When Raúl Grijalva died on March 13 after a battle with lung cancer, he left his sprawling southern Arizona congressional district vacant, and Democrats down a crucial vote in the House of Representatives.

The seat will be filled via a special election, but Arizona law slows the process down considerably,…

Report Shorts (May 15, 2025)

May 15, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Colorado’s 4th District. Navy Rear Admiral Eileen Laubacher filed to run against GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert. Laubacher, who also served on Biden’s White House National Security Council, has a difficult road in a district Trump carried by 18 points in 2024. But Boebert typically underperforms, so the race is worth…

Podcast Episode 46: What’s up with Redistricting? w/ David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report

May 7, 2025 · 11:52 AM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and David Wasserman of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter analyze the handful of states where redistricting and new congressional maps could affect the fight for the House majority and take a broader look at how redistricting impacts our elections and the partisan mood of…

Wisconsin 3: Drifting Red or Drifting Blue?

by Jacob Rubashkin May 1, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

Wisconsin is often described as the capital of the political world. But the Badger State is home to just one competitive congressional seat, western Wisconsin’s 3rd District.

The 3rd, currently represented by Republican Derrick Van Orden, has an Inside Elections Baseline score of just R+1.3, making it one of the…

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 5th District. Former Cardinals, Bears and Giants kicker Jay Feely announced his campaign for the open seat being left behind by GOP Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running for governor. President Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by nearly 20 points in a seat that includes Gilbert and…

Podcast Episode 45: Trump Policy in Key States, Election Coverage w/ Adam Levy of BBC

April 24, 2025 · 3:35 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Adam Levy of the BBC analyze the impact of tariffs, immigration and President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in local economies in key states including Ohio and Florida ahead of the midterm elections and discuss how U.S. election coverage has changed over the years and how…

Podcast Episode 44: Trump, Tariffs, Economy, Election w/ Laura Weiss of Punchbowl News

April 11, 2025 · 11:47 AM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Laura Weiss of Punchbowl News analyze how President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty of the economy and stock market affect his relationship with Republicans on Capitol Hill and how it could threaten Republicans’ majority in the House and the Senate in next year’s midterm…

Four Districts that Could Feature Sleeper House Races

by Jacob Rubashkin April 3, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

What are the sleeper races? That’s one of the most common questions every election cycle, but there isn’t always a clear answer.

Identifying the most competitive races isn’t all that tough. Just look at seats with close races in the past or the districts that featured tens of millions of…

Podcast Episode 43: Potential Florida Upset , House Specials w/ Erin Covey of Cook Political Report

March 30, 2025 · 9:59 PM EDT

Jacob Rubashkin and Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report w/ Amy Walter talk through the potential for a Democratic upset in the special election for Florida's 6th District, as well as what we'll learn from the outcome there and in Florida's 1st District. The episode also touches on upcoming…