Senate News & Analysis

New Hampshire Senate: Same Races, Familiar Faces

by Jacob Rubashkin May 1, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

When three-term incumbent Jeanne Shaheen announced she wouldn’t run for re-election next year, she introduced another potential headache for Senate Democrats, who are already defending two Trump-won states and are hard-pressed to find offensive opportunities.

But two months later, Democrats are feeling better about the Granite State, thanks to some…

Report Shorts (May 1, 2025)

May 1, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 5th District. Former Cardinals, Bears and Giants kicker Jay Feely announced his campaign for the open seat being left behind by GOP Rep. Andy Biggs, who is running for governor. President Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by nearly 20 points in a seat that includes Gilbert and…

Podcast Episode 45: Trump Policy in Key States, Election Coverage w/ Adam Levy of BBC

April 24, 2025 · 3:35 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Adam Levy of the BBC analyze the impact of tariffs, immigration and President Donald Trump’s economic agenda in local economies in key states including Ohio and Florida ahead of the midterm elections and discuss how U.S. election coverage has changed over the years and how…

Illinois Senate: Durbin’s Retirement Sets Up Crowded Democratic Primary

by Jacob Rubashkin April 23, 2025 · 4:01 PM EDT

Dick Durbin, the Senate Democratic whip and a five-term incumbent, made it official today that he will not seek re-election next year. Durbin’s decision, which had been telegraphed for the past several weeks, will likely kick off a crowded and expensive primary to replace him.

Durbin is the fifth senator…

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Open-minded about Outcomes

April 17, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Nineteen months before Election Day, it’s healthy to be open-minded about what could happen in next year’s midterm elections. 

Under normal political conditions, Republicans would hold and potentially expand their Senate majority in 2026. Partisanship is powerful and Republicans are defending just one…

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Alabama - Kansas

April 17, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Tommy Tuberville (R), elected 2020 (60%). If the former Auburn football coach decides to run for governor rather than seek a second term, there could be a GOP free-for-all to succeed him in the Senate. But nobody is making serious moves until Tuberville tips his hand, and it looks…

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): Kentucky - New Mexico

April 17, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky. Open; Mitch McConnell (R), not seeking re-election. McConnell’s decision not to seek re-election sets up a contentious GOP primary that could turn on Trump’s endorsement. Former state Attorney General Daniel Cameron was the first to launch his bid; the former McConnell protege and 2023 gubernatorial nominee has already had…

2026 Senate Overview (April 17, 2025): North Carolina - Wyoming

April 17, 2025 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina. Thom Tillis (R), elected 2014 (49%) and 2020 (49%). All eyes are on former Gov. Roy Cooper, who one Democratic source described as “Plans A through Z” for the party. But Cooper is finishing a fellowship at Harvard this spring and doesn’t seem to be in a rush…

Podcast Episode 44: Trump, Tariffs, Economy, Election w/ Laura Weiss of Punchbowl News

April 11, 2025 · 11:47 AM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Laura Weiss of Punchbowl News analyze how President Donald Trump’s tariffs and the uncertainty of the economy and stock market affect his relationship with Republicans on Capitol Hill and how it could threaten Republicans’ majority in the House and the Senate in next year’s midterm…

Podcast Episode 43: Potential Florida Upset , House Specials w/ Erin Covey of Cook Political Report

March 30, 2025 · 9:59 PM EDT

Jacob Rubashkin and Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report w/ Amy Walter talk through the potential for a Democratic upset in the special election for Florida's 6th District, as well as what we'll learn from the outcome there and in Florida's 1st District. The episode also touches on upcoming…