Archive

Georgia Runoff History: Why the Past May Not Be Prologue

by Jacob Rubashkin November 19, 2020 · 2:26 PM EST

On his way to becoming the first person to defeat an incumbent president since Bill Clinton in 1992, Joe Biden also replicated another one of the Arkansas governor’s feats: winning Georgia, something no Democratic presidential candidate has done in 28 years.

Along with Biden’s narrow win —…

The Fight for the Senate Continues into 2022

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 19, 2020 · 8:14 AM EST

While we won't know who controls the Senate next year until after the Georgia runoffs, the battle will continue into the 2022 midterms. Similar to 2020, Republicans will start on the defensive, and Democrats are initially poised to make gains once again. But the cycle will likely be defined by the…

2020 Elections Enter New Stage

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 6, 2020 · 12:12 PM EST

If your job involves the elections, you’re going to be humbled at some point, and probably more than once. Apparently four years is long enough to almost forget the fun and challenges of handicapping an election with Donald Trump on the ballot.

With votes still being counted and races still to be…

A Brief History of Georgia Runoffs, and Why This Time May Be Different

by Jacob Rubashkin November 4, 2020 · 11:45 PM EST

An updated version of this article is available here.

With President Donald Trump’s initial lead dissipating in Georgia, GOP Sen. David Perdue looks increasingly likely to be forced into a January runoff against Democrat Jon Ossoff. Perdue’s share of the vote is close to dipping below 50 percent,…

Where Do We Go From Here?

November 4, 2020 · 4:59 AM EST

Based on everything else that has happened this year, this is a fitting end to the 2020 elections, as the fights for the White House and Senate continue on past Election Day. 

The scenario of extended uncertainty shouldn’t be a surprise, since the media has been talking about the need for patience…

What to Watch for on Election Night

by Jacob Rubashkin November 3, 2020 · 10:45 AM EST

As you prepare for tonight, make sure you’re following the entire Inside Elections team on Twitter: @nathanlgonzales @JacobRubashkin @ryanmatsumoto1 @BradWascher @StuPolitics, and the main account: @InsideElections.

It’s Election Day in America, and there’s a lot riding on the outcome. Not only is…

The 2020 Battle for Congress: A Story Through Two Years of Rating Changes

by Jacob Rubashkin November 2, 2020 · 1:53 PM EST

Election Day is this Tuesday, and while it might seem like an eternity since the midterms, it’s only been two years since Americans last went to the polls to elect their members of Congress.

In this article, we’re taking a look back at the last 20 or so months and how our outlook on the fight for…

How Blue is North Carolina? District Baseline Analysis

by Bradley Wascher November 2, 2020 · 10:08 AM EST

As one of the closest battlegrounds in recent election years, North Carolina is often referred to as a microcosm of the nation’s trends: its urban areas are becoming more liberal, and its rural areas are becoming more conservative. 

One way to understand North Carolina’s politics is by studying…

Presidential Snapshot in Time (October 30, 2020)

by Bradley Wascher October 30, 2020 · 9:27 AM EDT

The 2020 campaign isn’t quite over yet, but it is reaching the denouement. And as the final surveys continue to trickle in until Tuesday, now is a great time to step back and contextualize the trends driving the past six months of general election polls. 

Starting off with today’s topline: in an…

2020 Election Preview: Bracing for History

October 28, 2020 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the…