Relative to polls and media narratives, President Donald Trump no doubt exceeded expectations on November 3rd. But there’s another way to gauge his, as well as Joe Biden’s, electoral performance.
Vote Above Replacement (VAR) measures the strength of a political candidate relative to a typical…
By Ryan Matsumoto & Bradley Wascher
On Tuesday, voters in Georgia will have the chance to dramatically shape the course of the Biden presidency. If both Democrats (Jon Ossoff and Raphael Warnock) emerge victorious in the state’s Senate runoff elections, Democrats will control the legislative and…
On Monday, Democrats Raphael Warnock and Jon Ossoff released a joint memo “sounding the alarm” that their campaigns were at risk of failure if they didn’t raise more money. The memo warned that the two candidates, whose victories would hand control of the Senate to the Democrats, were being swamped…
We’re putting a pause on our first Senate and House ratings for the 2022 cycle, but it’s not for the reason you might be thinking. After whiffing on the House projection this year as President Donald Trump overperformed expectations, I floated the idea of forgoing race ratings in elections whenever…
On January 5, 2021, voters in Georgia will head to the polls to participate in the most consequential Senate runoffs in modern history, the outcomes of which will decide which party controls the Senate, and if the Biden administration enters with a united or divided government.
Already, more than…
With the election results now certified, it’s easier to begin analyzing what happened. Inside Elections is excited to roll out updates to our Baseline metric, now incorporating results from 2020. Baseline captures a state or congressional district’s political performance by combining all federal…
In the six weeks since November 3rd, much has been said about the performance of election polling. Were the polls good enough, or were they catastrophically wrong? The answer of course depends on whom you ask, but one thing is clear: pollsters could have done better.
To be fair, the argument is…
California Dreamin’
Senate. Soon to be vacant due to Kamala Harris’s election as vice president. Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom will appoint a successor to Harris, and this seat was already scheduled for an election in 2022. Various constituencies are reportedly lobbying Newsom for their preferred…
What happened in the elections matters less than what the politicians think happened in the elections. It’s a lesson from earlier this summer, and no more applicable than right now.
Republicans could have taken President Donald Trump’s defeat, another two years in the House minority and a loss of…
More than 158 million voters cast ballots in the November election. And while Joe Biden won the Electoral College (by a margin Republicans called a landslide four years ago) and Democrats maintained control of the House, the emerging narrative is one of Republican resurgence and resilience down the…
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