House News & Analysis

Rating Update: GOP Open Seat in Florida Remains Solid R for Now

April 11, 2018 · 3:11 PM EDT

You could be forgiven for overlooking the retirement of Rep. Dennis Ross today, given that the Florida Republican decided to announce his decision the same morning Speaker Paul Ryan announced his decision to not seek re-election.

Ross said he’d be returning to practicing law instead of seeking a fifth…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Fraudulent Signatures, Roseanne, and Kindness

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 9, 2018 · 8:45 AM EDT

Florida Senate (a): GOP Gov. Rick Scott may not win the race this year, but it will be an expensive slog for Democrats and Sen. Bill Nelson, despite the confidence American Bridge projected in a memo Wednesday

Florida Senate (b): Democrats attacking Scott for being a weak vote-getter in…

When History Overtakes a Campaign Promise

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2018 · 10:59 AM EDT

The press release from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee was groundbreaking, if difficult to believe.

The chairman of the DCCC said his committee “will not fund any Democratic candidate who initiates attacks against their Republican opponents of an ‘intimate’ personal nature.”

In response, the National Republican Congressional Committee’s chairman made…

Nathan’s (Mostly) Political One-Liners: Barn Jackets, HGTV and Pop Punk Music

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2018 · 3:40 PM EDT

My inclination is to write 4,000 words about everything, so I’m trying something new by limiting myself to one line of a thought or analysis per race/existential thought. Here it goes:

Arizona’s 8th District. With EMILY’s List endorsing Democrat Hiral Tipirneni and the Republican National Committee, National Republican Congressional Committee,…

Ratings Update: Connecticut 5 Remains Solid Democratic for Now

April 2, 2018 · 9:30 PM EDT

Democratic Rep. Elizabeth Esty announced that she won’t run for re-election after the Connecticut Post reported that she recommended her former chief of staff for a job after facing accusations of physically and verbally harassing another staffer.

“Too many women have been harmed by harassment in the workplace,”…

How Can the GOP Turn Out Trump Voters?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 2, 2018 · 9:26 AM EDT

In my column last week, I noted that current public opinion data and recent election results point to a likely Democratic takeover of the House in the fall.

Some argue President Donald Trump’s unpopularity is already baked into the election cake, leaving Republicans little room to maneuver. But if…

Pennsylvania 6 Rating Change: Costello Decision Shifts Seat to Likely Democratic

March 24, 2018 · 11:23 PM EDT

If GOP Rep. Ryan Costello thought he could win, it sure seems like he would have run again. But despite having nearly $1.4 million in campaign funds on Dec. 31, the 41-year-old congressman is not seeking re-election in the newly-drawn 6th District of Pennsylvania. His withdrawal  takes a GOP…

Top of the Ticket Woes Could Lead to Downballot Debacle

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

It’s no secret that Republicans are headed for difficult midterm elections this fall, particularly in the House. It could be tough for GOP incumbents and candidates to generate enthusiasm among Donald Trump’s most loyal supporters when the President is not on the ballot. But the lack of competitive statewide races…

Illinois Primaries: Opportunities in the Land of Lincoln

by Nathan L. Gonzales March 23, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Primaries can be a painful winnowing process for political parties, but they help set the stage for significant general election races in the fall. And unlike Texas, Illinois doesn’t have a runoff provision, so we know the general election match-ups in key contests that will help decide the House majority.  

New York 25: Special Election Possible After Slaughter’s Death

March 23, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Long-time Democratic Rep. Louise Slaughter died March 16, setting up a potential special election in New York’s 25th District. 

The Rochester-based district is rated Solid Democratic, considering Hillary Clinton carried it by 16 points in 2016, while President Barack Obama did so by 19 points in both 2008 and…