House News & Analysis

Maine 2: Turning LePage on Golden?

by Jacob Rubashkin October 9, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

Each party has their own white whales in Congress, the representatives who avoid defeat cycle after cycle despite running in difficult districts and facing fierce opposition. This cycle, Republicans’ biggest white whale is Maine Democrat Jared Golden.

Since coming from behind to win America’s first ranked-choice voting congressional election in…

Arizona 6: Send the Marine

by Jacob Rubashkin October 9, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani has been in the spotlight since he stepped on the national political stage four years ago. The young, telegenic candidate was an instant hit with GOP donors and power players, and his story — immigrating from Mexico and climbing from working class beginnings to become the…

Report Shorts (Oct. 9, 2025)

October 9, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kentucky Senate. Former Marine fighter pilot Amy McGrath joined the Democratic race for the open seat left by retiring GOP Sen. Mitch McConnell. After losing a close House race to Republican Andy Barr in 2018, McGrath gained national attention for her run against McConnell in 2020. She raised and spent…

Arizona 1: Open Seat Shifts to Toss-up

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 1, 2025 · 10:49 PM EDT

One of the most competitive House races in the country has gotten a little more complicated with Republican Rep. David Schweikert announcing that he won’t seek re-election to Arizona’s 1st District. 

After winning by less than a point in 2022 and 4 points in 2024, Schweikert was near the…

Podcast Episode 56: Midterms, NFL, Kentucky Derby w/ Steve Kornacki of NBC News

October 1, 2025 · 7:20 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Steve Kornacki of NBC News take a fresh look at the battle for the House majority with a little more than a year before the midterm elections, analyze the latest numbers in the race for governor in New Jersey this year and talk about how…

Tennessee 7 Special: Upset in the Making?

by Nathaniel Rakich September 30, 2025 · 3:04 PM EDT

Kansas’ 4th District. Montana’s At-Large district. Georgia’s 6th District. South Carolina’s 5th District. Alabama’s U.S. Senate seat. Pennsylvania’s 18th District. Arizona’s 8th District.

Throughout 2017 and into early 2018, election watchers kept seeing the same movie over and over: Special elections in heavily Republican areas were way closer than they…

A Detailed Analysis of Missouri’s New Congressional Map

by Nathaniel Rakich September 29, 2025 · 9:41 AM EDT

The unprecedented redistricting arms race of 2025 continues apace. After Texas Republicans redrew their state’s congressional map with the goal of flipping from three to five House seats, California Democrats voted to place their own new congressional map before voters this November that would…

Michigan 7: Longing for Lansing

by Jacob Rubashkin September 25, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

When Vice President JD Vance traveled to Michigan earlier this month, he chose a welding plant in Michigan’s 7th District as his backdrop. It was a clear indicator of just how important the Lansing-area swing seat is to the fight for the House majority in 2026.

The 7th is currently…

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 7th District. Democrat Adelita Grijalva won the special general election on Tuesday, 69-30 percent over Republican Daniel Butierez, in the race to replace her late father. Even with some votes still being counted, the result is yet another overperformance for Democrats in special elections considering Kamala Harris received 60…

Podcast Episode 55: Two Biggest Races of 2025 w/ Abby Turner of National Journal’s Hotline

September 18, 2025 · 2:45 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Abby Turner of National Journal’s Hotline analyze the key messages and strategies ahead of the two biggest races of 2025 (the New Jersey and Virginia races for governor) as Republicans try to keep up their momentum from 2024 and Democrats try to get a bump…