Inside Elections

2026 House Ratings (September 29, 2025)

September 29, 2025 · 9:40 AM EDT

Iowa Senate: Democrats Reach for Open Seat

by Jacob Rubashkin September 25, 2025 · 2:30 PM EDT

One of the final pieces of the Senate battleground fell into place last month when GOP Sen. Joni Ernst announced she would not seek re-election to a third term in Iowa.

Ernst’s decision was not entirely surprising. The retired Army lieutenant colonel had a difficult 2025, dealing with the backlash…

Michigan 7: Longing for Lansing

by Jacob Rubashkin September 25, 2025 · 2:29 PM EDT

When Vice President JD Vance traveled to Michigan earlier this month, he chose a welding plant in Michigan’s 7th District as his backdrop. It was a clear indicator of just how important the Lansing-area swing seat is to the fight for the House majority in 2026.

The 7th is currently held by…

Report Shorts (Sept. 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona’s 7th District. Democrat Adelita Grijalva won the special general election on Tuesday, 69-30 percent over Republican Daniel Butierez, in the race to replace her late father. Even with some votes still being counted, the result is yet another overperformance for Democrats in special…

2026 House Ratings (September 25, 2025)

September 25, 2025 · 2:26 PM EDT

Podcast Episode 55: Two Biggest Races of 2025 w/ Abby Turner of National Journal’s Hotline

September 18, 2025 · 2:45 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Abby Turner of National Journal’s Hotline analyze the key messages and strategies ahead of the two biggest races of 2025 (the New Jersey and Virginia races for governor) as Republicans try to keep up their momentum from 2024 and Democrats try to get a bump…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Can Redistricting Cushion Potential Fall?

September 11, 2025 · 2:00 PM EDT

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

Approaching halfway through the cycle, the fight for the House majority remains the marquee event of the midterms. While the Senate usually gets more of the attention, the size of the GOP majority and slate of states on the ballot has made that chamber a…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Alabama - Iowa

September 11, 2025 · 1:59 PM EDT

Alabama. Filing deadline Jan. 23. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Open; Barry Moore, R, running for Senate. Trump 77%. Former Rep. Jerry Carl is seeking his old seat back after losing to Moore in a member vs. member primary last year. The Moore family…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): Kentucky - New York

September 11, 2025 · 1:58 PM EDT

Kentucky. Filing deadline Jan. 9. Primary May 19.
6th District (Greater Lexington area) Open; Andy Barr, R, running for Senate. Trump 57%. Former state Sen. Ralph Alvarado, state Rep. Ryan Dotson, and state Rep. Deanna Frazier Gordon make up the GOP primary field. On the Democratic side, former…

2026 House Overview (Sept. 11, 2025): North Carolina - Wisconsin

by Jacob Rubashkin September 11, 2025 · 1:57 PM EDT

North Carolina. Filing deadline Dec. 19. Primary March 3. Runoff (if necessary) May 12.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D, re-elected 49.5%. Trump 51%. National Republican strategists like Rocky Mount Mayor Sandy Roberson, who narrowly lost the 2022 GOP primary. He’s…