By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
With less than eight months to go, the Republican House majority is at considerable risk.
Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job rating and consistent Democratic overperformance in races around the country point to Democrats…
Alabama. Primary May 19. Runoff (if necessary) June 16.
1st District (Southern Alabama) Open; Barry Moore, R, running for Senate. Trump 77%. Former Rep. Jerry Carl begins the GOP primary with a name ID advantage that gives him an early lead in polling, but state Rep. Rhett Marques had twice as much…
Kentucky. Primary May 19.
4th District (Cincinnati suburbs and northern Kentucky border area) Thomas Massie, R, re-elected unopposed. Trump 67%. Trump is determined to oust Massie in the GOP primary and is supporting former Navy SEAL Ed Gallrein. Trump rallied with Gallrein in the district on…
North Carolina.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck and state Rep. Bobby Hanig in a primary…
Arkansas Senate. Farmer Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary with 78 percent last week and will face GOP Sen. Tom Cotton (82 percent in the GOP primary). Lightning might need to strike three times for Shoffner to win, but Democrats have a credible candidate in place if that happens. Solid…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
President Donald Trump’s nomination of GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security is big news for the president’s cabinet, but it doesn’t likely alter the fight for Oklahoma’s Senate seat — or the majority — all that much.
…Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the…
By Jacob Rubashkin and Nathan L. Gonzales
Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a…
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