Inside Elections

2012 House Ratings (June 20, 2011)

June 20, 2011 · 9:59 PM EDT

Will Governors Hurt GOP’s White House Prospects?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 17, 2011 · 9:32 AM EDT

After seeing the argument multiple times that Republican governors’ low poll numbers in key states could severely damage the prospects of the eventual GOP presidential nominee, I figured it was time to track down how that argument spread and to take a look at it.

On May 25, Democratic pollsters…

Redistricting’s Bottom Line Might Surprise You

by Stuart Rothenberg June 15, 2011 · 9:36 AM EDT

Six months ago, before redistricting had even begun, Republicans were optimistic they would gain additional seats, or, as former Republican National Committee Chairman Ed Gillespie put it, that they would “gain or protect” 15 to 25 seats.

Not surprisingly, Democratic Congressional Campaign…

Is History on House Members’ Side in 2012?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 10, 2011 · 11:01 AM EDT

Even longtime political analysts sometimes fall into a rut, and that’s where I’ve been in thinking about whether a Member of the House of Representatives can be nominated for president.

“No,” has been my knee-jerk reaction, falling back on the time-tested explanation that House members don’t…

30 Years Later, Nolan Considers Comeback Bid

by Stuart Rothenberg June 8, 2011 · 9:05 AM EDT

The story of former Rep. Richard Nolan’s possible comeback attempt more than 30 years after he last served in the House may end up merely as an asterisk in any post-mortem of the 2012 election cycle.

But for those of us who love the ebb and flow of politics, it could offer a window into how…

Rhode Island 1: Do You Believe in Providence?

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2011 · 4:15 PM EDT

It’s not very often that Republicans want to face a Democratic incumbent in a Democratic district, but that’s the case in Rhode Island’s 1st Congressional District.

Even though it’s almost a year and a half until Election Day, an early public poll makes a compelling case that Democrat David…

Connecticut Senate: Wrestling for the Nomination

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 6, 2011 · 4:14 PM EDT

Competitive Democratic primaries are nothing new in Connecticut, and next year, the Nutmeg State will host another one.

Back in 2006, Sen. Joseph Lieberman lost renomination only to come back and win the general election as a third party candidate. In the face of another likely primary…

Why You Need to Ignore Most Current Polling

by Stuart Rothenberg June 3, 2011 · 10:48 AM EDT

My eye caught a small item in Roll Call on Tuesday announcing that “Blackwell Leads GOP Senate Hopefuls in Ohio Poll,” a reference to the 2012 Ohio Senate contest.

Polls are news, of course, so this newspaper and its competitors dutifully report them, eager to post a new item on their websites…

Only Hypocrisy Is Truly Bipartisan

by Stuart Rothenberg June 1, 2011 · 9:25 AM EDT

It’s no wonder many Americans hold politicians in low regard.

Our political “leaders” often say one thing when they are in power and something diametrically opposed when they are not. They often appear to be reading from a script, changing roles depending on whether they just won or lost a…

Hollywood Couldn’t Save California Hopeful

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 31, 2011 · 10:06 AM EDT

Warning: The Congressional campaign on your screen is smaller than it appears.

Until a couple of weeks ago, no one had heard of Dan Adler. He was an also-ran in the crowded special election race to replace Rep. Jane Harman (D) in California’s 36th district.

But in the final days of the race,…