Inside Elections

2012 House Ratings (July 25, 2011)

July 25, 2011 · 3:10 PM EDT

The Center Can’t Hold if There Isn’t One Left

by Stuart Rothenberg July 22, 2011 · 12:25 PM EDT

It wasn’t that long ago that any talks leading to a possible major bipartisan deal would include names like former Sens. John Breaux (D-La.) and Sen. Evan Bayh (D-Ind.), former Rep. John Spratt (D-S.C.), Sens. Dick Lugar (R-Ind.) and Olympia Snowe (R-Maine) and, yes, Speaker John Boehner…

Is the House Now in Play for the 2012 Elections?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 20, 2011 · 10:35 AM EDT

With key redistricting decisions still pending in a number of large states — including Florida, Ohio, Pennsylvania, California, New York, Minnesota and Washington — there are plenty of questions yet to be answered about the playing field for next year’s Congressional elections.

Still, we are…

2012 House Ratings (July 18, 2011)

July 18, 2011 · 12:01 PM EDT

Missouri Senate: Math Problem

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 15, 2011 · 3:00 PM EDT

As a Democratic senator in a red state, Claire McCaskill has always known that she was going to have a tough race. But she might have made things a little more difficult for herself.

After years of crafting an image as an independent, good government politician, McCaskill has been forced to…

New Hampshire 2: Gone Fishing, Again

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 15, 2011 · 2:59 PM EDT

There isn’t an official recipe for getting on a Democratic target list, but Republican Charlie Bass has found a few key ingredients.

Bass regained his 2nd District of New Hampshire last year after losing reelection in the Democratic wave of 2006. But despite the GOP wind at his back last cycle,…

Debt Ceiling Stalemate Not About Numbers

by Stuart Rothenberg July 15, 2011 · 11:08 AM EDT

There is an old joke, attributed to both Winston Churchill and George Bernard Shaw. It goes something like this:

Churchill: Madam, would you sleep with me for 5 million pounds?

Woman: My goodness, Mr. Churchill ... Well, I suppose ... we would have to discuss terms, of course ...

Churchill:…

Redistricting Success Often a Moving Target

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 14, 2011 · 10:44 AM EDT

While handicappers try to tally Democratic and Republican redistricting wins and losses in midcycle, the reality is that it could be a decade before either party can declare victory. When it comes to redistricting, how and when to define success isn’t always easy.

For now, both parties are…

GOP Primary Features Two Two-Person Races

by Stuart Rothenberg July 13, 2011 · 10:39 AM EDT

While the Republican presidential race has only just begun, it’s already clear that two early one-on-one skirmishes will be crucial for the serious contenders.

The first battle, Iowa, is shaping up as a fight between former Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty and Minnesota Rep. Michele Bachmann.

Ask a Bad Question, You’ll Get a Bad Answer

by Stuart Rothenberg July 8, 2011 · 1:58 PM EDT

I avoid back-and-forth public arguments, believing that after I’ve made my case readers can decide for themselves who and what they believe. But I’m making an exception with this follow-up column.

I recently challenged those who argue that unpopular Republican governors seriously damage the…