Archive

Are Obama’s Polls Worse Than Meet the Eye?

by Stuart Rothenberg July 6, 2011 · 10:16 AM EDT

On their face, President Barack Obama's poll numbers are mediocre but not terrible. His 46 percent job approval in the June 15-19 Pew Research Center survey is far better than President George W. Bush's worst Pew Research Center job numbers, for example.

In March of 2006, Bush's job approval…

PPP (D) Polls Flood Early Senate Landscape

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 5, 2011 · 10:09 AM EDT

In recent years, Democrats have consistently criticized Rasmussen Reports for flooding the public space with polls and driving the narrative of races to favor Republican candidates. But six months into the 2012 cycle, public polling in Senate races has been dominated by one Democratic firm.

Illinois Districts: New Normal

by Nathan L. Gonzales July 1, 2011 · 3:00 PM EDT

The Land of Lincoln will host some of the biggest House races this year, which isn’t great news for Republicans since Barack Obama will be on the ballot once again.

Democrats weren’t in charge of drawing new congressional maps in too many states, but they were in Illinois, and they made the…

Republicans Try to Even the Score with New North Carolina Lines

by Stuart Rothenberg July 1, 2011 · 12:20 PM EDT

National Republican strategists, still smarting from creative Democratic map-making in Illinois, finally have a reason to smile.

North Carolina Republicans have a new Congressional map that is likely to cost Democrats at least three seats and quite possibly four in 2012.

Republican insiders…

Obama Visits Media Market He Shunned in 2008

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 30, 2011 · 9:47 AM EDT

With his trip to Davenport, Iowa, on Tuesday, President Barack Obama returns to a media market that he shunned in the 2008 presidential contest.

Even though Iowa is traditionally a swing state, the Obama campaign refused to air television ads in the general election in the Quad Cities because…

The Politics of the Debt Ceiling Are Too Tempting

by Stuart Rothenberg June 29, 2011 · 1:01 PM EDT

With President Barack Obama’s job approval sliding, the stock market showing its nerves, the public increasingly pessimistic about a jobs rebound and signs of a slowing economy everywhere, the president looks to be increasingly in trouble.

Trying to take advantage of what they see as an…

No Rival and Plenty of Cash? Don’t Rest Easy

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 27, 2011 · 9:30 AM EDT

With millions of dollars in the bank and no challenger, the path to re-election looks like a freshly paved freeway for some Senate incumbents. But using recent history as a road map, those factors can be poor predictors of electoral success and certainly don't guarantee another term.

With just…

Who Lost the New Hampshire GOP Debate? Me

by Stuart Rothenberg June 24, 2011 · 9:38 AM EDT

While most of political America has by now offered their thoughts about who won the June 13 Republican presidential debate in New Hampshire, I’m quite certain about the loser: me.

That’s right, I’m the big loser because I spent two hours of my time — hours that I’ll never get back — watching a…

Rick Perry: Republican Savior or GOP Disaster?

by Stuart Rothenberg June 22, 2011 · 11:22 AM EDT

The buzz about Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s possible entrance into the presidential race grows, but the Republican’s cheerleaders ought to tread carefully when it comes to a Perry candidacy — very carefully.

Perry, 61, surely would be a serious contender for the GOP nomination, at least initially.…

2012 House Overview (June 20, 2011)

June 20, 2011 · 10:00 PM EDT

The outlook for the House in 2012 continues to look hazy because of the slow pace of redistricting.

Around the country, Republicans are trying to solidify their 2010 gains, while Democrats are hoping that the combination of a presidential election and the Ryan budget proposal’s handling of…