Inside Elections

2018 House Ratings (May 4, 2018)

May 4, 2018 · 2:20 PM EDT

Tennessee Senate: Why I’m Cautious About Phil Bredesen’s Prospects

by Stuart Rothenberg April 30, 2018 · 9:10 AM EDT

Two early surveys show former Tennessee Gov. Phil Bredesen, a Democrat, holding a lead over Republican Rep. Marsha Blackburn in hypothetical ballot tests of this year’s Senate race.

Those polls, along with kind words about Bredesen from retiring Tennessee GOP Sen. Bob Corker, have raised the…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: Hair in Montana Ads, Let’s Remember Candidates from Kentucky

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 28, 2018 · 10:30 AM EDT

Arizona’s 8th District Special (a): The House majority was in play before the special election and it’s in play after the special election (and more thoughts in the aftermath of the race).

Arizona’s 8th District Special (b): Two months ago, we changed our rating from Solid Republican to Likely…

Nebraska Senate: How Vulnerable is Deb Fischer?

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 27, 2018 · 2:45 PM EDT

Nebraska has been dubbed a “sleeper” Senate race and rated as competitive by some handicappers. House Democrats just came close to winning a special election in a congressional district President Donald Trump won by 21 points, so how vulnerable is GOP Sen. Deb Fischer?

At a minimum, the senator…

9 Thoughts After the Arizona 8 Special Election

April 25, 2018 · 12:28 AM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam 

The Associated Press declared Republican Debbie Lesko the winner in Arizona’s 8th District special election.

It’s late. Let’s do this with bullet points.

• The House majority was in play before the Arizona results and the House majority is in play…

(Mostly) Political One-Liners: BonChon, Accessible Campaigns, and Future of Tackle Football

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 24, 2018 · 5:18 PM EDT

"Accessible” Attacks: Three Democratic candidates recently compared and contrasted their accessibility to the incumbents they are challenging, but neither Ken Harbaugh (OH-07) nor Dean Phillips (MN-03) nor Elissa Slotkin (MI-08) appear to have a working phone number on their campaign websites.

…

Trump Numbers Are Up. And Down. But Really Unchanged.

by Stuart Rothenberg April 23, 2018 · 12:44 PM EDT

New national polls show voters are more upbeat about President Donald Trump’s performance and more pessimistic about the Democrats’ chances of taking back the House. Or not.

An April 8-11 Washington Post-ABC News poll showed Trump’s job approval rating at 40 percent, while 56 percent disapproved…

2018 Senate Overview: Two Americas

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 20, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

John Edwards’ “Two Americas” speech failed to get him to the White House, but it’s an apt description of the fight for Congress in 2018. While Democrats are primed to take back the majority in the House, Republicans are in better shape in the Senate, thanks to the class of senators up this cycle. …

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Arizona - Maine

April 20, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. May 30 filing deadline. Aug. 28 primary. One of the most competitive Senate races in the country begins with a competitive GOP primary between Rep. Martha McSally, former state Sen. Kelli Ward, and former Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio.…

Senate Overview (April 20, 2018): Maryland - Ohio

April 20, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

MARYLAND. Ben Cardin (D) elected 2006 (54%), 2012 (56%). June 26 primary. Cardin has never had a blowout race, but after 2016 when Clinton won Maryland by 26 points and Democratic Rep. Chris Van Hollen won the state’s other Senate seat by 25 points, the senator is in good shape for a third term. He…