Senate News & Analysis

Outlier or Early Warning? Late Iowa Poll Confounds

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 3, 2024 · 4:39 PM EST

It’s never wise to jump to conclusions based on any single poll. But it would be foolish to ignore results from a quality pollster. 

Ann Selzer shocked the political world on Saturday evening with a poll showing Vice President Kamala Harris ahead of former President Donald Trump by 3 points…

Podcast Episode 35: Pre-Election Projections w/ Kirk Bado of National Journal

November 1, 2024 · 7:51 PM EDT

Nathan, Jacob and Kirk Bado of National Journal’s Hotline break down the fights for the Senate, House, and White House in the final pre-election episode of the 2024 elections.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket Casts here.

The Inside Elections podcast analyzes congressional, presidential…

Senate Report Shorts (October 31, 2024)

October 31, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Democratic Phoenix Rep. Ruben Gallego is in the driver’s seat despite Arizona looking shaky for Harris at the top of the ticket. Gallego’s early spending over the summer on TV ads that introduced the Latino Harvard-educated Marine on his own terms have…

Podcast Episode 34: Race Ratings, Presidential Debates, Civility in America w/ Judy Woodruff

October 25, 2024 · 9:41 PM EDT

Nathan and Jacob reveal the latest batch of House and Senate race rating changes and talk with legendary political journalist Judy Woodruff of the PBS Newshour about the 2024 election, prepping for Election Night, moderating debates and the lack of civility in America. 

Listen to the podcast on…

Senate Report Shorts (October 18, 2024)

October 18, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Rep. Ruben Gallego has led in every public poll of this race since August, and Kari Lake isn’t meeting her marks in any of the state’s competitive congressional districts either. Lake’s allies engaged in months of innuendo about Gallego’s divorce but recently…

Podcast Episode 33: Sleeper House Poll, Senate Ratings, House Races w/ Erin Covey of Cook Political

October 17, 2024 · 2:28 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in a sleeper race in Arizona’s 2nd District and discuss race rating changes in the Nevada and Arizona Senate races before breaking down the fight for the House majority with Erin Covey of The Cook Political Report…

Senate Report Shorts (October 10, 2024)

by Jacob Rubashkin October 10, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Former president Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris remain locked in a close fight in the presidential race, but GOP former local news anchor/2022 gubernatorial Kari Lake is consistently running behind Trump. Since it’s unlikely Trump wins Arizona by a wide…

Podcast Episode 32: North Carolina Poll, VP Debate, Election Models w/ Nathaniel Rakich of 538

October 3, 2024 · 3:13 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in North Carolina’s 1st District and analyze the vice presidential debate between Sen. J.D. Vance and Gov. Tim Walz before discussing election polls, models, and election forecasting with Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight.

Listen to the…

Senate Report Shorts (September 26, 2024)

September 26, 2024 · 2:29 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) not seeking re-election. Whether it’s statewide surveys or snapshots in competitive House districts, it’s clear that Democratic Rep. Ruben Gallego has the edge over GOP former local news anchor/2022 gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake. It looked like Lake had a better chance early this summer when…

Podcast Episode 31: Montana Poll, Rating Changes, Connecticut’s 5th w/ Daniela Altimari of Roll Call

September 19, 2024 · 1:18 PM EDT

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin unveil the latest Inside Elections/Noble Predictive Insights poll in Montana’s 1st District, talk about the latest rating changes, and analyze a critical House race in Connecticut with Daniela Altimari of CQ Roll Call.

Listen to the podcast on Spotify, Apple Podcasts, or Pocket…