Senate News & Analysis

Illinois Primary Results: Democrats Nominate Likely New Members

by Jacob Rubashkin March 18, 2026 · 12:36 PM EDT

Voters in Illinois headed to the polls Tuesday to choose their nominees for the open Senate seat vacated by Sen. Dick Durbin and a slew of open House seats. Both the Senate seat and the four open House districts are rated Solid Democratic, so the winners of the Democratic primaries…

House Overview: Democrats Favored to Win the Majority

March 12, 2026 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With less than eight months to go, the Republican House majority is at considerable risk. 

Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job rating and consistent Democratic overperformance in races around the country point to Democrats gaining at least the three seats they…

Senate Report Shorts (March 12, 2026)

March 12, 2026 · 2:26 PM EDT

Arkansas Senate. Farmer Hallie Shoffner won the Democratic primary with 78 percent last week and will face GOP Sen. Tom Cotton (82 percent in the GOP primary). Lightning might need to strike three times for Shoffner to win, but Democrats have a credible candidate in place if that happens. Solid…

Oklahoma Senate: Mullin Appointment Could Create Ripple Effect

March 5, 2026 · 4:04 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

President Donald Trump’s nomination of GOP Sen. Markwayne Mullin to be the next Secretary of Homeland Security is big news for the president’s cabinet, but it doesn’t likely alter the fight for Oklahoma’s Senate seat — or the majority — all that much. 

Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty

by Jacob Rubashkin March 5, 2026 · 9:11 AM EST

Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the surprise open seat.

Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries

March 4, 2026 · 10:10 AM EST

By Jacob Rubashkin and Nathan L. Gonzales

Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a vulnerable…

Podcast Episode 66: The Land of Illinois Primaries w/ Shia Kapos of Politico

February 27, 2026 · 2:05 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Shia Kapos of Politico's Illinois Playbook dive deep into the upcoming Illinois primaries including the Democratic race to succeed Sen. Dick Durbin and a handful of crowded and competitive House primaries, where as little as 20 percent of the vote could be enough to effectively…

Texas: Republicans, Democrats Face Critical Early Primaries

February 19, 2026 · 2:29 PM EST

By Patrick Svitek

The Texas primary feels bigger than ever. While the November elections are still eight months away, more than a dozen consequential primaries in the Lone Star State are rapidly approaching.

At the top of the ticket, a longtime Senate incumbent, Republican John Cornyn, is struggling to win…

Report Shorts (Feb. 19, 2026)

February 19, 2026 · 2:28 PM EST

Arizona Governor. Karrin Taylor Robson suspended her campaign leaving two Republican congressmen, Andy Biggs and David Schweikert, to battle for the GOP nomination. Biggs is regarded as the frontrunner with President Donald Trump’s support. But Schweikert is making the case that his experience in competitive general elections is valuable in…

Podcast Episode 65: Even Primaries are Big in Texas w/ Gabby Birenbaum of Texas Tribune

February 12, 2026 · 1:49 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin and Gabby Birenbaum of The Texas Tribune run down the biggest primaries in Texas including the Republican and Democratic Senate primaries and run through the Republican and Democratic House incumbents who might not even get renominated. Also, Jacob can’t stop watching reality TV, Gabby plugs the…