Inside Elections

2021-22 Gubernatorial Ratings (September 15, 2021)

September 15, 2021 · 1:51 PM EDT

California Governor Recall: Advantage Newsom in Final Stretch

by Ryan Matsumoto September 14, 2021 · 9:45 AM EDT

It’s Election Day, but more than eight million Californians have already voted in the recall election. Since our last update two weeks ago, Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom has strengthened his position and is increasingly likely to defeat the recall attempt.

Polling
The FiveThirtyEight polling…

California Governor Recall: Media Spending Reflects GOP Challenge

by Christopher Sebastian September 13, 2021 · 1:03 PM EDT

Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG.

The complicated logistics of the California recall process created a noticeable divide in the messaging and broadcast strategies of Democrats and Republicans.

While those against the Sept. 14 recall only needed to convince Californians to…

Nevada Senate: It Matters

by Jacob Rubashkin September 10, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

With the Senate divided 50-50 between Democrats and Republicans, every seat up is a potential majority-maker in 2022, including Nevada

Both parties have four major targets on the Senate battlefield. For Democrats, those are Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina and Florida. For Republicans,…

Minnesota 2: Twin Billing

by Jacob Rubashkin September 10, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

With history, redistricting, and the current national political environment on their side, Republicans are on the march to the House majority. And if they make big gains in 2022, Minnesota’s 2nd District is likely to be in that batch of takeovers.

Democrats are facing the worst national…

RIP, Rally ’Round the Flag

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 9, 2021 · 8:45 AM EDT

Less than 12 hours after Flight 175 crashed into the South Tower of the World Trade Center on Sept. 11, 2001, close to 150 members of Congress, Republicans and Democrats, stood together on the steps of the U.S. Capitol to sing “God Bless America.” Unfortunately, that act of bipartisanship won’t…

How Afghanistan Will (and Won’t) Matter in 2022 Midterms

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 2, 2021 · 12:00 PM EDT

No, the 2022 midterm elections will not be about Afghanistan, but that doesn’t mean the situation won’t matter. 

While Presidents George W. Bush, Barack Obama and Donald Trump contributed to the military morass, and there was close to bipartisan consensus that leaving Afghanistan was the right…

House Majority Forward Enters the Early Fight

by Christopher Sebastian August 31, 2021 · 2:23 PM EDT

Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG

House Majority PAC  has never been afraid to spend money.

Still, the Democratic stalwart of Super PAC spending has, for the past decade, limited its involvement in off-cycle and pre-primary activity. Even as other outside PACs have grown…

2022 House Overview: Republicans on the Offensive

August 27, 2021 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

With census data in hand and President Joe Biden’s job performance in the spotlight, the fight for the House is well underway. Republicans came into the cycle with history and redistricting on their side, but now might have the added benefit of a politically…

2022 House Overview (August 27, 2021): Alabama - Iowa

August 27, 2021 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama. Current delegation breakdown: 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat. Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 24 primary. July 26 runoff (if necessary). No partisan changes expected in the Yellowhammer State, which will retain its seven-member delegation. There is a competitive primary brewing in the 5th District…