Archive

In Politics, Expect the Unexpected

by Stuart Rothenberg September 21, 2012 · 3:00 PM EDT

I was on a panel at an event in the nation's capital Sept. 10. The subject was the elections, and another panelist and I discussed the race for the White House and the fight for control of Congress.

Toward the end of the event, someone in the audience asked about foreign policy. Does it matter…

‘State Waves’ and the Fight for the Senate

by Stuart Rothenberg September 17, 2012 · 9:00 AM EDT

While there is no evidence that a national partisan wave will develop between now and Nov. 6, there is every reason to expect a number of "state waves" that will prove to be challenging for some candidates - and for political handicappers.

In fact, candidates' abilities to fight through the…

Senate Majority Still Hangs in the Balance

September 14, 2012 · 12:59 PM EDT

With Democratic Sen. Claire McCaskill’s Missouri Senate seat moving from more likely than not to switch to the GOP to more likely than not to remain in Democratic hands, Republican chances for taking back the Senate have slipped.

The Senate is certainly still “in play” -- but only if…

Death of the Presidential Race Has Been Exaggerated

September 14, 2012 · 12:58 PM EDT

One week after the end of the Democratic convention it’s still hard to know whether the small Obama bounce in polling after the conventions reflects a permanent shift in the presidential race toward Obama’s benefit or is merely a momentary blip on the radar screen.

Some campaign watchers…

Democrats Scramble to Make Case for House Majority

September 14, 2012 · 12:57 PM EDT

While their chances of holding the White House and the Senate might be improving, Democrats still face long odds in their effort to retake the majority in the House.

Democrats need to gain 25 seats but are still hindered by spending money defending some of their own incumbents and open seats.…

2012 House Ratings (September 14, 2012)

September 14, 2012 · 12:56 PM EDT

2012 Senate Ratings (September 14, 2012)

September 14, 2012 · 12:55 PM EDT

Both Parties Roll the Dice on Medicare Issue

by Stuart Rothenberg September 12, 2012 · 11:28 AM EDT

Democrats started licking their chops moments after Republican presidential nominee Mitt Romney announced that he had selected Wisconsin Rep. Paul Ryan to be his running mate.

Whether the reaction came from the national party's House and Senate campaign committees, President Barack Obama's…

Nearly 99% of House Incumbents Won Their Primaries

by Nathan L. Gonzales September 11, 2012 · 11:09 PM EDT

Congressional job approval isn’t even near 20 percent but nearly 99 percent of incumbents seeking re-election won their primaries this year.

Despite all the stories about a purported anti-incumbent wave in which voters would throw out sitting members of all shape, size and party, the phenomenon…