Archive

Reverting to the Norm: The Race Narrows

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2012 · 9:54 AM EDT

With less than two weeks to go until the elections, the presidential race continues to revert to the norm, a development that can only worry the president and his top strategists.

States that historically have been competitive in presidential elections or tilted to the GOP are moving in that…

Indiana Senate Moves to Pure Toss-Up

October 24, 2012 · 2:45 PM EDT

Just when it looked like state Treasurer Richard Mourdock (R) might have been starting to gain his footing in the Indiana Senate race, an unforced error may have wiped away any small advantage he had in the race.

In Tuesday’s debate with Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), in response to a question about…

Senate Fight: Still Too Early to Count Chickens

by Stuart Rothenberg October 24, 2012 · 10:20 AM EDT

One year ago, Republicans had every reason to believe that they were poised to net at least four Senate seats in November and gain control of the chamber in the next Congress. A month ago, on the other hand, Democrats had reason to be confident that even if they lost a seat or two, their party…

House Ratings Changes: Mixed Optimism for Both Parties

October 19, 2012 · 2:47 PM EDT

With less than three weeks until Election Day, our outlook for the House of Representatives remains little changed. We are making a dozen ratings changes this week -- seven toward Republicans and five toward Democrats as we take four races off our list of competitive contests.

The House…

Pennsylvania Sen. Casey (D) Moved from Safe to Favored

October 19, 2012 · 2:00 PM EDT

Is Sen. Bob Casey (D) this year’s October surprise?

The Pennsylvania Democrat’s re-election race was largely ignored for most of the cycle until recently when multiple public polls showed him in a surprisingly tight contest with wealthy businessman Tom Smith.

In the last 10 days, five polls…

Looking for House Upsets? Take a Look at These

by Stuart Rothenberg October 19, 2012 · 10:11 AM EDT

I usually draw a blank when people ask me to offer a possible upset or two. After all, I’d rather not be surprised on election night, though there are almost always a couple of unexpected outcomes.

But I’ve been looking at some numbers recently and have been struck by a handful of races that I…

List of House Goners Not What We Expected

by Stuart Rothenberg October 17, 2012 · 9:06 AM EDT

It is three weeks before Election Day and a handful of incumbents are already seeing the writing on the wall. They won’t be coming back to Congress. It’s time to look for other gainful employment or merely enjoy the quiet pleasures of forced retirement.

North Carolina Democratic Rep. Larry…