Archive

Cook’s Partisan Voting Index and the Decline of the Swing District

by Stuart Rothenberg April 15, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

Every political reporter, campaign professional and political junkie should read Charlie Cook’s most recent National Journal column on the decline of swing congressional districts and the rise of partisanship. (I am certain some credit for the analysis also goes to David Wasserman over at the…

Five Takeaways From the New NBC/WSJ Poll

by Stuart Rothenberg April 14, 2013 · 9:30 AM EDT

A few observations on the new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll:

  • This is the first time the president’s job approval numbers have been “upside down” — more people disapproving than approving — since June 2012.
  • After spiking around the election, the right direction/wrong track numbers…

Scott Brown’s Potentially Silly Adventure

by Stuart Rothenberg April 12, 2013 · 9:40 AM EDT

Last week, I wrote a short item about reports that former Massachusetts GOP Sen. Scott P. Brown was not ruling out a run for the Senate in 2014 — in New Hampshire.

I argued that the idea was a bad one and that running in the Granite State after passing on the 2013 Senate special election in…

Pennsylvania Governor: Can Allyson Schwartz Make It to Harrisburg?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 11, 2013 · 9:46 AM EDT

Philadelphia Democratic Rep. Allyson Schwartz recently confirmed what everyone had already suspected: She is seeking the Democratic nomination for governor in Pennsylvania.

The big question is whether someone from southeastern Pennsylvania can get nominated, let alone win the governorship.…

Most Vulnerable Senator of ‘14? Pryor by a Hair

by Stuart Rothenberg April 10, 2013 · 10:04 AM EDT

Who is the most vulnerable senator seeking re-election next year?

Georgia Republican Saxby Chambliss might have won the distinction because of his vulnerability to a conservative primary challenger, but he has already announced he won’t seek another term.

The same goes for West Virginia…

Why Isn’t Maine’s Susan Collins Vulnerable?

by Stuart Rothenberg April 9, 2013 · 9:31 AM EDT

On one level, Maine’s lone Republican in Congress, Sen. Susan Collins, looks like a defeat waiting to happen.

She is a Republican from a state that went comfortably for Democrat Barack Obama twice. And she is from New England, a part of the country where the GOP is all but extinct in federal…

The War on Walmart: Once Hot, Now Not

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 8, 2013 · 1:12 PM EDT

Not long ago, Democrats and organized labor were railing against Wal-mart as the arch nemesis of organized labor. Now, President Barack Obama has tapped a high-level Wal-Mart official to be a member of his Cabinet and put her at the forefront of one of the most important issues of the day. What…

Why Scott Brown Running in N.H. Is a Really, Really Bad Idea

by Stuart Rothenberg April 8, 2013 · 9:25 AM EDT

Multiple media outlets are reporting that former Massachusetts Sen. Scott P. Brown, a Republican, hasn’t ruled out a bid for the Senate next year in New Hampshire.

I haven’t ruled out lots of things in my life that I don’t intend to do and am pretty sure I won’t do, and if that’s all that Brown…

New Jobs Numbers Raise Economic — and Political — Questions

by Stuart Rothenberg April 6, 2013 · 10:00 AM EDT

The jobs numbers just reported for March — an increase of only 88,000 jobs — are horrendous, especially coming after February’s strong job surge (236,000 new jobs revised up to 268,000).

Forget the unemployment rate sliding from 7.7 percent to 7.6 percent. As The Associated Press noted, that…

Utah 4: Matheson v. Love, Round Two

by Nathan L. Gonzales April 5, 2013 · 2:30 PM EDT

Rarely does one House race have a national impact, but that is the case in Utah’s 4th District.

In 2012, Saratoga Springs Mayor Mia Love came within 768 votes of knocking off Rep. Jim Matheson (D) and becoming the first black Republican woman to serve in Congress.

Her loss came as a surprise…