Inside Elections

2026 Senate Ratings (January 9, 2025)

January 9, 2025 · 2:25 PM EST

Florida 20: House Ethics Committee Releases Initial Cherfilus-McCormick Report

by Jacob Rubashkin January 7, 2025 · 9:58 AM EST

Democratic Rep. Sheila Cherfilus-McCormick remains the subject of a House Ethics Committee investigation, and documents released by the committee last week confirm Inside Elections’s reporting on the South Florida congresswoman’s unusual campaign finances and taxpayer-funded TV ads.

On Thursday,…

California 45: Tran Melts Steel’s Advantage

by Jacob Rubashkin December 19, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

How did a little-known attorney, a first-time candidate who “came out of nowhere,” defeat a mainstay of Orange County politics in one of the closest races of the 2024 cycle?

That’s the question Republicans are asking themselves in California’s 45th District after Derek Tran, a 44-year-old lawyer,…

Report Shorts (December 19, 2024)

December 19, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

Florida’s 7th District. The House Ethics Committee is investigating GOP Rep. Cory Mills, but it’s not clear what he potentially did wrong. Mills just won re-election by 14 points in the Central Florida seat, and Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 12.5 points, according to elections…

Podcast Episode 37: 2024 Election Hits & Misses, Nebraska 2, Online Scams

December 13, 2024 · 1:50 PM EST

Nathan Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin talk about what they got right (and wrong) in the 2024 elections, do a deep dive into one of the most competitive House races in the country and how Rep. Don Bacon was able to survive, and look ahead to the 2026 fight for the Senate including a key race in North…

The 7,309-Vote Election: How Republicans Held the House

by Jacob Rubashkin December 11, 2024 · 11:00 AM EST

Control of the House of Representatives ultimately came down to a group of voters smaller than the crowd at a Texas high school football game. And by at least one metric, 2024 was the closest race for control of the House in recent history.

The battle was a hard-fought, race-by-race slog that…

2024 Election Projections: How’d We Do?

December 5, 2024 · 2:30 PM EST

By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin

Donald Trump winning another election created the perception that political handicapping was impossible. But not only was his victory not a surprise this time, but our political projections overall were pretty darn good this cycle.

The Republican trifecta…

Nebraska 2: Bacon Cooks Democrats Again

by Jacob Rubashkin December 5, 2024 · 2:29 PM EST

When the dust settled on the 2024 elections, there were few surprises in the House of Representatives. A close, competitive fight resulted in a five-seat majority for the Republicans, and neither party scored any unexpected wins.

The biggest upset was barely an upset at all, in Nebraska’s 2nd…

2024 Baselines: How the States Have Shifted

by Bradley Wascher December 5, 2024 · 2:28 PM EST

Compared to other recent elections, 2024 seems strange at the statewide level. Four states split their tickets between president and Senate — more than in 2016 and 2020 combined — plus three others did the same for governor. But we can paint a clearer picture by putting all the results together…

House Report Shorts (December 5, 2024)

December 5, 2024 · 2:27 PM EST

Florida’s 1st District. Republican Matt Gaetz will not be Trump’s attorney general, but he’s not returning to Congress either. Gov. Ron DeSantis has already scheduled a January 28 primary and April 1 special general election for this Florida Panhandle seat. In the all-important GOP primary, state…