By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Donald Trump winning another election created the perception that political handicapping was impossible. But not only was his victory not a surprise this time, but our political projections overall were pretty darn good this cycle.
The Republican trifecta…
When the dust settled on the 2024 elections, there were few surprises in the House of Representatives. A close, competitive fight resulted in a five-seat majority for the Republicans, and neither party scored any unexpected wins.
The biggest upset was barely an upset at all, in Nebraska’s 2nd…
Compared to other recent elections, 2024 seems strange at the statewide level. Four states split their tickets between president and Senate — more than in 2016 and 2020 combined — plus three others did the same for governor. But we can paint a clearer picture by putting all the results together…
Florida’s 1st District. Republican Matt Gaetz will not be Trump’s attorney general, but he’s not returning to Congress either. Gov. Ron DeSantis has already scheduled a January 28 primary and April 1 special general election for this Florida Panhandle seat. In the all-important GOP primary, state…
The second time isn’t always the charm.
In nearly half of the most competitive House races of 2024, one or both of the major nominees were repeat candidates. But while returning House hopefuls often bring real advantages to the table — they can avoid expensive primaries, have existing donor…
Nathan Gonzales, Jacob Rubashkin, and Amy Walter of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter discuss the 2024 election results including the fights for the White House, Senate, and House. In addition, Jacob finally gets around to watching L.A. Confidential, Amy talks about the hottest ticket in…
President-elect Donald Trump is wasting little time filling out key positions in his incoming administration, and so far he is drawing heavily on GOP elected officials. That means vacancies, and at least a handful of special elections in early 2025.
In 2017 and 2018, special elections to the House…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
Donald Trump was elected president, but it was not 2016 all over again. Unlike eight years ago, the former president had an irrefutable chance of winning, even after Democrats pushed aside President Joe Biden for Vice President Kamala Harris. And unlike…
Arizona. Open; Kyrsten Sinema (I) did not seek re-election. Rep. Ruben Gallego, a Democrat from Phoenix, defeated former news anchor and 2022 GOP gubernatorial nominee Kari Lake by 2 points, 50-48 percent, even as Trump carried the state at the top of the ticket.
California. Open; Laphonza Butler…
Alaska.
At-Large District. Mary Peltola, D, re-elected 55%. We won’t know the winner of this race until Nov. 20, when the state tabulates its ranked-choice ballots, but Peltola is the clear underdog against entrepreneur Nick Begich, who leads in the initial returns, 49-46 percent. Peltola will need…
