House Overview: Democrats Favored to Win the Majority
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
With less than eight months to go, the Republican House majority is at considerable risk.
Historical midterm trends, President Donald Trump’s negative job rating and consistent Democratic overperformance in races around the country point to Democrats gaining at least the three seats they need to flip the House.
Republican optimism rooted in an improving economy hit a snag with the war with Iran. There’s no evidence Trump has even started an upward climb, even though there’s technically time for his standing to improve. And even though the Democratic Party brand is very unpopular, the election is more likely to be a referendum on the party in power at a time when voters are dissatisfied with the status quo.
There will be more district-specific polling in the coming months which will help gauge how the negative national mood is hitting individual House races, and our ratings in the most competitive races will shift accordingly. Until then, the movement on the periphery of the battleground is evidence of a broader shift in favor of Democrats. With the latest batch of race rating changes, Republicans are now defending more competitive seats compared to Democrats (33 vs. 29) . That discrepancy could grow if Virginia voters approve a new congressional map on April 21 that could net Democrats an additional four seats.
Democratic infighting in an array of primaries will temporarily heal in November in opposition to Republicans in…
