2026 House Overview (Dec. 5, 2025): Beginning to Look Like a Traditional Midterm
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Jacob Rubashkin
The special election result in Tennessee’s 7th District is just the latest piece of evidence that, in spite of President Donald Trump’s reputation as a political immortal, 2026 is beginning to look a lot like a traditional midterm.
There’s a perception that normal rules don’t apply to Trump, who overperformed the polls and got elected twice with baggage that would end most political careers. But that’s not really true, particularly when he’s not on the ballot.
Even though Trump was the surprise winner in 2016, it’s been long enough to forget that 2018 was a normal midterm election. His job approval rating sunk to 44 percent over the course of his first two years in office, and Republicans got thumped, losing more than 40 House seats. That’s what happens to parties when they have an unpopular president in the White House.
Now, almost a year into Trump’s second term, it looks like we’re on the same course. The president’s job approval rating is slightly worse (about 41 percent, according to Nate Silver’s national average), and this year’s election results have been nothing but good news for Democrats.
Whether it’s Democrats’ winning margins in the New Jersey, Virginia and California general elections last month or their losing margins in two House special elections in Florida this spring and Tennessee’s 7th District on Tuesday, the trend has been clear: Democrats are overperforming by double-digits compared with the 2024…
