Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty
Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the surprise open seat.
Daines, who served two terms in the Senate and most recently led the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2024 cycle, had been a heavy favorite for re-election. But his surprise retirement and the unexpected elevation of Alme, a first-time candidate who also served as US Attorney for Montana during President Donald Trump’s first term, introduces some uncertainty to this otherwise sleepy race. We’re moving our rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Democratic fortunes in Montana have declined in recent years. Daines won a hotly contested second term over Gov. Steve Bullock in 2020 by 10 points. In 2024, Sen. Jon Tester lost re-election to Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy, 53-46 percent; he was the last Democrat serving in statewide office in Big Sky Country.
This cycle, however, Tester and some other Democrats are hoping to improve their fortunes by backing an independent candidate in the Senate race, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. The former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar is looking to run in the mold of union leader Dan Osborn, whose independent bid for Senate in Nebraska in 2024 came up just 7 points short in the…
