As a reformed political scientist who still looks closely at polls and is always knee-deep in past electoral results, I understand that people are impressed by statistical analysis, even when it creates a faulty sense of precision. But what makes politics so fascinating is the unexpected development, the unquantifiable…
It’s time for another caution about polls and what they mean.
The most recent set of six CBS News/New York Times state polls conducted by Quinnipiac University and the latest Fox News national poll should remind us how important each survey’s sample is in understanding the ballot test.
…It’s not news that voters in presidential swing state media markets are being bombarded with political ads on television.
According to the Campaign Media Analysis Group, $13.6 million in presidential ads has aired so far in the Cleveland media market, $4.6 million in Cedar Rapids, Iowa, and $15.2…
Those of us who have been reporting on and discussing politics for the past few decades have come to expect rough-and-tumble campaigns. As Chicago writer Finley Peter Dunne once observed: “Politics ain’t beanbag.”
But the nature of the 2012 presidential campaign so far raises questions about how, or…
Rarely a day goes by without some journalist noting that another Member of Congress is passing up the very forgettable opportunity of attending his or her party’s convention later this summer.
The list of media outlets to report on this “development” is long and getting longer: the New…
There’s good news on the horizon for attention-deprived candidates: Millions of voters will soon be glued to their television screens in a normally dead time for campaign advertising.
The bad news is that it’s the Summer Olympics, and candidates and outside groups will have to spend a premium…
Moments after the Supreme Court’s decision upholding the constitutionality of the health care law, observers were already assessing its political implications for the November elections.
The decision “amounts to a massive political win for the incumbent,” wrote Chris Cillizza of the Washington Post.
“The decision will certainly…
Back in October, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating stood at 44 percent in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and only 17 percent of voters said that things in the country were “generally headed in the right direction.” Those numbers suggested that the president would lose re-election unless…
The 2012 presidential election looks like it could well be another squeaker, and if it is, a number of possible outcomes could produce national hand-wringing, finger-pointing, complaints of unfairness and anger, further dividing Americans and undermining confidence in our political system.
A dozen years ago, Democrat Al Gore…
I never include the Keystone State in my list of presidential swing states for November. Am I making a mistake? Possibly.
There are plenty of reasons to leave the commonwealth of Pennsylvania off any list of the most competitive states that will decide the next president.
While…
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