President News & Analysis

Hillary and Jeb: Destined to Play the Long Game?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 28, 2016 · 2:57 PM EST

In a previous election cycle, or maybe a previous decade, Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush might, at this point, be coasting to their parties’ nominations. This cycle, however, both resemble tragic heroes — politicians who have worked hard to prepare themselves for the presidency yet face possible rejection by voters.

Goldwater vs. McGovern in 2016?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 20, 2016 · 4:31 PM EST

The strangest election in our lifetime continues to get stranger.

Very rarely, one party decides to make a suicidal statement about its views and values. It happened in 1964 and again in 1972, for example. But this time, both parties are at least flirting with the idea of nominating…

Can Rubio Win Even If He Loses?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 13, 2016 · 10:25 AM EST

Can a candidate win the Republican presidential nomination without winning one of the first three contests – Iowa, New Hampshire or South Carolina? We may just find out this year.

History, of course, has already provided something of an answer. Democrat Bill Clinton didn’t win a contest in 1992…

Obama’s Empty Campaign Threat on Gun Control

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 12, 2016 · 1:56 PM EST

In the heat of his push for more gun control, President Barack Obama threatened to withhold support from anyone, including Democrats, who didn’t support “common-sense” changes. But based on the political realities of this cycle, his comments aren’t likely to dramatically impact Senate races.

“Even as I continue to…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: North Carolina

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:28 PM EST

A Democratic presidential nominee has won North Carolina just once in the last 40 years, but the Tar Heel State is now firmly planted among the broader group of swing states. 

The results of the 2008 elections ignited the narrative that North Carolina is a purple-colored swing state. That…

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

by Stuart Rothenberg January 8, 2016 · 9:34 AM EST

Barry Ritholtz, a financial planner and asset manager, writes a regular column in The Washington Post’s business section. I read him religiously, and his last column of 2015, on financial prognosticators, offered important observations for anyone interested in politics, sports or Wall Street.

I include all three subjects…

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 7, 2016 · 10:49 AM EST

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is poised to absorb Donald Trump’s supporters when the billionaire exits the race for the GOP presidential nomination, according to one of the campaign’s most common narratives. But how many Trump supporters are open to supporting another candidate?

The quickest analysis of the Republican race…

Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 5, 2016 · 9:30 AM EST

Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.

That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump’s strength in a general election derail his bid for the Republican nomination, or would GOP caucus…

Presidential Battleground Spotlight: New Hampshire

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 18, 2015 · 2:58 PM EST

All of the focus in New Hampshire is on the Feb. 9 presidential primaries, but the Granite State is poised to be a battleground up and down the ballot in the general election as well. 

With just four electoral votes, it’s the smallest swing state prize, even behind potentially…

And the GOP Nominee Will Be…

by Stuart Rothenberg December 18, 2015 · 11:33 AM EST

RealClearPolitics political analyst Sean Trende is one of the clear-eyed, analytic observers of American politics, and I usually find myself nodding in agreement when I read his invariably thoughtful stuff.

That didn’t happen when I was reading his Dec. 10 piece, “Laying Odds on…