Texas, North Carolina Kick off 2026 Primaries
March 4, 2026 · 10:10 AM EST
By Jacob Rubashkin and Nathan L. Gonzales
Voters in Texas, North Carolina and Arkansas officially kicked off the 2026 election cycle with a large and exciting slate of important primaries. The matchup is officially set in one of the marquee Senate races in the country (North Carolina) and a vulnerable incumbent is still alive in another (Texas). And there’s some clarity in what the next Congress could look like as some Texas Republicans won critical primaries in solidly GOP seats and parties got closer to choosing nominees in battleground races.
North Carolina
Senate. Open; Thom Tillis, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 51%. Amidst all of the chatter about the Texas Senate race on the outskirts of the fight for the majority, the nominees are officially set in a race at the core of the battleground. Former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley will face former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper in the open-seat race.
The race is currently rated as a Toss-up, but it’s a must-win for Democrats if they are going to gain the four seats necessary for a majority. If Democrats don’t win the Tar Heel State, they’ll need to win three of four more Republican states: Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Donald Trump finished ahead of Kamala Harris by 3 points in 2024, but it looks like Democrats have a slight advantage in an open seat in a swing state with a popular former statewide officeholder in a national political environment that favors Democrats. If Republicans hold North Carolina in November, it will be a very long night for Democrats.
1st District (Inland northeastern North Carolina) Don Davis, D. Trump 55%. It’s a rematch between Davis and retired Army Col. Laurie Buckhout, who lost narrowly to the congressman in 2024. Buckhout (40 percent) beat out Carteret County Sheriff Asa Buck (35 percent) and state Rep. Bobby Hanig (16 percent) in a primary that turned on geography. Now the former acting Assistant Secretary of Defense for Cyber Policy will get another shot at Davis, with the additional advantage of new congressional lines that make the 1st District more favorable to Republicans. But Democrats are eager to litigate the same attacks they used against Buckhout in the 2024 race in a more favorable political environment. Tilt Republican.
4th District (Durham and Chapel Hill areas) Valerie Foushee, D, re-elected 72%. Harris 72%. Foushee declared victory in the Democratic primary that has not been officially called by the AP. She’s approximately 1,200 votes ahead of Durham County Commissioner Nida Allam, but the race is within the 1 point threshold for a recount request. The race saw an influx of outside money in the final weeks, with progressive groups supporting Allam while pro-AI and pro-Israel donors backed Foushee. This primary is a potential warning sign for other Democratic incumbents around the country. Solid Democratic.
11th District (Western North Carolina) Chuck Edwards, R, re-elected 57%. Trump 54%. Edwards will face farmer Jamie Ager in the fall in a race Democrats are hoping to put on the map. Edwards still has some base problems, as seen by his relatively weak 70-30 percent win in the GOP primary over an unheralded opponent, but he won the nomination by a similar margin in 2024 before cruising in the general election that year. Ager will be his strongest opponent yet, and the region has shifted somewhat toward Democrats. Solid Republican.
Texas
Senate. John Cornyn (R), elected 2002 (55%), 2008 (65%), 2014 (62%), and 2020 (55%). Cornyn and state Attorney General Ken Paxton are headed to a May 26 runoff. Houston-area Rep. Wesley Hunt finished a distant third. The senator over-performed pre-election polling by a few points and may end up finishing slightly ahead of Paxton. That understates the challenge of the long-time incumbent growing his support from 42 percent to a majority in the runoff, but a first-place finish could be enough to convince President Donald Trump to endorse him. Cornyn is still very much in the race, but is probably an underdog.
Democrats nominated state Rep. James Talarico (53 percent) over Rep. Jasmine Crockett (46 percent) without a runoff, allowing Democrats to get a head start on the general election. National Democrats are not eager to fight another war in Texas, where they’ve come up short in multiple expensive contests, but they will probably take a look based on Talarico’s nomination and the GOP fight. Likely Republican.
Governor. Greg Abbott (R), elected 2014 (59%), 2018 (56%), 2022 (55%). Abbott had no trouble securing a historic fourth nomination for governor. Democrats nominated state Rep. Gina Hinojosa, an Austin state legislator, attorney, and the daughter of longtime state party chairman Gilberto Hinojosa. She won the Democratic primary with 59 percent over former Rep. Chris Bell, but will be a heavy underdog in the general election. Abbott stockpiled $100 million in campaign cash through the end of last year and has never won by less than double digits. Solid Republican.
2nd District. Dan Crenshaw (R). Trump 61%. State Rep. Steve Toth defeated Crenshaw in the GOP primary, in a race where the margin (15 points) was more of a surprise than the ultimate outcome. Toth was endorsed by Sen. Ted Cruz and the House Freedom Caucus while Crenshaw failed to earn President Trump’s support. But the result was also about redistricting. Even though Republicans drew the new map, the new lines included Toth’s state legislative district and removed some of Crenshaw’s Harris County base. Toth should win in November. Solid Republican.
8th District (North and northwestern exurbs of Houston) Morgan Luttrell, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 63%. Jessica Steinmann, a former staffer in the first Trump administration and Sen. Ted Cruz’s office, won the GOP race with 68 percent. She had support from Cruz, Abbott and got a late endorsement from Trump. Solid Republican.
9th District (Houston suburbs) Open; Al Green, D, running in the 18th District. Trump 59%. Former Harris County judge candidate Alex Mealer (36 percent) and state Rep. Briscoe Cain (31 percent) are headed for runoff in the GOP primary. Mealer got a late endorsement from Trump while Cain had support from Abbott in this suburban Houston seat. Former Texas Rep. Steve Stockman, who was convicted in 2018 of defrauding charitable donors and misusing campaign money before Trump commuted his prison sentence in 2020, was a distant third with 17 percent. Environmental advocate Leticia Gutierrez won the Democratic primary with 54 percent. Astronaut Terry Virts, who dropped down from the Senate race, placed third with 15 percent. Even though Trump won the district handily in 2024, Beto O’Rourke carried the seat by 2 points in the 2018 Senate race, fueling some optimism among Democrats that they could win if 2026 ends up being a great Democratic year. Solid Republican.
10th District. Michael McCaul, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Attorney Chris Gober, who counts among his former clients billionaire Elon Musk, narrowly avoided a runoff for the GOP nomination, finishing with 51 percent and well ahead of second-place candidate Ben Bius. Gober had every major endorsement including Trump, Speaker Mike Johnson, Abbott, Cruz and the Club for Growth. This is a mostly rural district stretching from Austin to outside Houston. Solid Republican.
15th District (McAllen in the Rio Grande Valley to the outer San Antonio metro area) Monica De La Cruz, R. Trump 58%. Tejano music star Bobby Pulido won the Democratic nomination, well ahead of emergency room physician Ada Cuellar. That sets up a competitive race against De La Cruz in a seat Republicans drew to elect a Republican, but where Democrats believe they have a chance by winning back Hispanic voters in South Texas. Likely Republican.
18th District (Parts of central and northern Houston) Christian Menefee, D/Al Green, D. Haris 69%. It looks like the congressmen are headed for the May runoff in a race that hasn’t officially been called by the AP. Menefee was just elected in a special election in the old 18th District while Green has represented the 9th District for two decades. Green represents approximately two-thirds of the newly-drawn seat while Menefee represents about a quarter of it. But Menefee is coming off of the competitive special primary election, so he is fresh in voters’ minds. An incumbent is going to lose, but the unique circumstances mean it won’t fit neatly into any anti-incumbent narrative. Solid Democratic.
19th District (West Texas) Open; Jodey Arrington, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 75%. Lubbock businessman Tom Sell is advancing to the May GOP runoff but his opponent is not yet known. Sell received 40 percent and had the backing of billionaire Texas Tech University booster Cody Campbell. Meanwhile, it’s a close race for the second spot. Abraham Enriquez, the head of Bienvenido US who had Abbott’s support, is at 18.8 percent, while roofing CEO “Fat Matt” Smith is at 18.5 percent. Whoever eventually wins the GOP nomination will be a member of Congress. Solid Republican.
21st District. Open; Chip Roy, R, running for Texas attorney general. Trump 60%. Former Texas Ranger/New York Yankee’s first baseman Mark Teixeira won the GOP primary with 61 percent. He was endorsed by Trump, Abbott, Johnson and the Club for Growth and spent at least $2.5 million of his own money. Trey Trainor gave up his chairmanship of the Federal Election Commission to finish third with 9 percent. The Republican-friendly district stretches west from the bustling Austin-San Antonio corridor into the rural Hill Country. Solid Republican.
22nd District. Open; Troy Nehls, R, not seeking re-election. Trump 58%. Unsurprisingly, former Fort Bend County constable Trever Nehls won the GOP nomination and is the heavy favorite to win the general election in this suburban Houston district. Nehls is the identical twin brother of outgoing GOP Rep. Troy Nehls and had President Trump’s endorsement. Solid Republican.
23rd District (San Antonio suburbs to El Paso suburbs) Tony Gonzales, R. Trump 57%. After an extremely close runoff in 2024, it looks like Gonzales and gun rights activist Brandon Herrera are headed for a runoff rematch this May. But this time there’s an extra level of drama after allegations that Gonzales had an affair with an aide, who ended up committing suicide by lighting herself on fire. Some Republicans on the Hill have called for Gonzales to resign or drop out of the race, while others had hoped primary voters would finish off the congressman. But he still has a chance to win and this issue isn’t going away for Republicans anytime soon. It’s not clear whether attorney Katy Padilla Stout will win the Democratic nomination without a runoff, but whoever is the nominee will suddenly get a lot of attention because Republicans will have a flawed nominee. Solid Republican, for now.
28th District (Laredo and eastern San Antonio suburbs) Henry Cuellar, D. Trump 55%. Webb County Judge Tano Tijerina easily won the GOP primary with 74 percent, giving Republicans their top recruit in the race. He’ll face Cuellar, who won his Democratic primary with an underwhelming 58 percent on Tuesday. But President Trump complicated the race last year when he pardoned Cuellar, who was under indictment on corruption charges. Trump clearly thought Cuellar would respond by switching parties or doing something that would benefit Republicans, but that didn’t happen. Republicans are undeterred by that drama because they know the ethics charges weren’t enough to defeat him in the past and they are excited about Tijerina, a former Democrat. This is one of the most competitive races in the country. Tilt Democratic.
29th District (North Houston) Sylvia Garcia, D. Harris 60%. Garcia won renomination with 59 percent in a Democratic primary that was complicated by redistricting. While the Houston district has a Hispanic majority, the Black population almost doubled. Former state Rep. Jarvis Johnson finished second with 35 percent. Solid Democratic.
30th District (Southern Dallas) Open; Jasmine Crockett, D, ran for Senate. Harris 73%. Pastor Frederick Haynes III won the Democratic primary with 72 percent in the race to succeed Crockett. It’s one of the few remaining Democratic seats in Texas after the Republicans’ redraw. Solid Democratic.
32nd District (Dallas Suburbs and east Texas) Open; Julie Johnson, D, not running in this district. Trump 58%. Air Force veteran Jace Yarbrough finished well ahead of the crowded field with 49 percent, but the race might still go to a runoff. Yarbrough had endorsements from Trump, Abbott, Speaker Johnson and the Freedom Caucus. Pastor and wealthy former presidential candidate Ryan Binkley is second with 22 percent. Solid Republican.
33rd District (Downtown Dallas) Julie Johnson, D, elected 2024 in a different district. Harris 65%. Former Rep. Collin Allred leads Rep. Johnson 45-34 percent. There was some confusion and controversy surrounding voting and counting votes in Dallas County, but the race is going to a May runoff. Allred spent most of last year running for the Senate but dropped out of that race (and into this race) when Crockett announced her run for the Senate. The runoff will not be friendly but ultimately, the seat will stay in Democratic hands in November. Solid Democratic.
34th District (Eastern Rio Grande Valley) Vicente Gonzalez, D. Trump 55%. Army veteran and former federal prosecutor Eric Flores defeated former Rep. Mayra Flores 57-24 percent in the GOP primary. Even though Mayra Flores is a former member who was once highlighted by the national party, the GOP establishment is ready to turn the page after her second loss in 2024. Eric Flores looks poised to take on Gonzalez in one of the most competitive House races in the country. Trump finished ahead of Harris by 10 points, but it looks like Republicans’ hold on Hispanic voters in South Texas has slipped over the last year. Toss-up.
35th District (San Antonio suburbs) Open; Greg Casar, D, running in 37th District. Trump 55%. State Rep. John Lujan (33 percent) and Air Force veteran Carlos De La Cruz (27 percent) are headed to the May GOP runoff. Lujan was supported by Abbott while De La Cruz, who is the brother of Congresswoman Monica De La Cruz, got a late endorsement from Trump. Republicans redrew the district to elect a Republican but Democrats haven’t thrown in the towel and think the district’s large Hispanic population gives them an opportunity. Family therapist Maureen Galindo (29 percent) and police officer Johnny Garcia (27 percent) look to be headed to the May runoff. Likely Republican.
38th District (Houston Suburbs) Open; Wesley Hunt, R, running for Senate. Trump 60%. Mortgage broker John Bonck is well ahead of the rest of the GOP field with 47 percent, but that’s not enough to avoid a runoff. West Houston Airport president Shelly DeZevallos is a distant second with 19 percent. The Club for Growth spent $2.8 million for Bonck in the initial race. Solid Republican.