Montana Senate: Daines’ Drop Inserts Uncertainty
March 5, 2026 · 9:11 AM EST
Montana Sen. Steve Daines ended his re-election bid just minutes before the filing deadline Wednesday in a move coordinated with US Attorney Kurt Alme, who filed at the same time and effectively clinched the GOP nomination without any other hopefuls having the opportunity to declare for the surprise open seat.
Daines, who served two terms in the Senate and most recently led the National Republican Senatorial Committee during the 2024 cycle, had been a heavy favorite for re-election. But his surprise retirement and the unexpected elevation of Alme, a first-time candidate who also served as US Attorney for Montana during President Donald Trump’s first term, introduces some uncertainty to this otherwise sleepy race. We’re moving our rating from Solid Republican to Likely Republican.
Democratic fortunes in Montana have declined in recent years. Daines won a hotly contested second term over Gov. Steve Bullock in 2020 by 10 points. In 2024, Sen. Jon Tester lost re-election to Navy SEAL veteran Tim Sheehy, 53-46 percent; he was the last Democrat serving in statewide office in Big Sky Country.
This cycle, however, Tester and some other Democrats are hoping to improve their fortunes by backing an independent candidate in the Senate race, former University of Montana President Seth Bodnar. The former Green Beret and Rhodes Scholar is looking to run in the mold of union leader Dan Osborn, whose independent bid for Senate in Nebraska in 2024 came up just 7 points short in the ruby red state.
But for Bodnar to have a clean shot against Alme in the general election, he’ll need to convince the eventual winner of the Democratic primary to drop their candidacy. That may be easier said than done. Former state Rep. Reilly Neil, the most prominent in a field of largely unheralded Democratic hopefuls, has been highly critical of Bodnar and his independent bid. The other Democratic candidates are Air Force veteran Alani Bankhead, Navy veteran Mike Hummert, and tribal preservation officer Michael Black Wolf; none have raised more than $20,000, while Neill raised $147,000 through the end of 2025.
If the general election ends up a three-person race, that likely ensures a victory for Alme, given that Bodnar is likely to split votes with the Democratic nominee. Two recent polls found Daines leading a three-way race by more than 20 points.
But if Bodnar and his allies are successful in boxing out the eventual Democratic nominee, the independent may have an opportunity to make the race competitive. His profile could lend itself to national fundraising, and the optics of Daines engineering a coronation for Alme could backfire among Montanans, especially after 1st District Rep. Ryan Zinke executed a similar maneuver late last week.
The timing is an unforced error by Republicans and introduces a unique element into the race. Had Daines dropped out even a few days before the deadline, there likely wouldn’t have been the same potential backlash that Republicans could now experience.
Montana is not a critical part of the path back to the Democratic majority, which still runs through North Carolina, Maine, Alaska and Ohio. Nor has it joined the ranks of Texas and Iowa in the second tier of opportunities for the party. But a flurry of filing deadline activity has created an opening for Democrats in a year where the political winds appear to be blowing in their direction.