North Carolina Senate: Tillis Decision Creates Open Seat
June 29, 2025 · 3:13 PM EDT
In the face of opposition from President Donald Trump, GOP Sen. Thom Tillis announced he will not seek re-election in 2026. The senator’s decision doesn’t change the overall Senate battleground, but it makes the seat more vulnerable to a Democratic takeover without an incumbent.
After Tillis declined to support the so-called “one big beautiful bill,” Trump threatened to support a primary challenger against the senator. Now that Tillis has stepped aside, all eyes will be on Trump to anoint a preferred candidate in order to avoid a messy primary that could make it easier for Democrats to take over the seat.
Potential GOP candidates include current Reps. Richard Hudson (who is also chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee), Pat Harrigan and Addison McDowell, former Rep. Patrick McHenry. Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley, Trump daughter-in-law/former RNC co-chair Lara Trump and 2024 superintendent of public instruction nominee Michele Morrow.
On the Democratic side, former Rep. Wiley Nickel is running, but former Gov. Roy Cooper has been seriously considering the race since before Tillis made his announcement. Now that the seat is open, Cooper’s entry would seem to be more likely. But if Cooper passes for some reason, Wiley won’t likely have the race to himself. Lt. Gov. Rachel Hunt, former EPA Administrator Michael Regan, former CDC Director Mandy Cohen, and 2018 9th District nominee Dan McCready could all take a fresh look.
Inside Elections rated the North Carolina Senate race as a Battleground before Tillis’ decision and the open seat remains a Battleground for now. We’ll move to our full spectrum of ratings (Toss-up, Tilt, Lean, Likely and Solid) at the end of July. But North Carolina will continue to be one of the most competitive Senate races in the country.
Overall, Republicans are early favorites to maintain control of the Senate, but North Carolina is arguably the GOP’s most vulnerable seat. Maine is a more Democratic state, but GOP Sen. Susan Collins will be difficult to defeat. North Carolina is a swing state, but an easier target as an open seat. All of the other Republican Senate seats up for election this cycle are significantly more Republican. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
Considering three-straight presidential victories by Trump, Republicans are confident they'll hold the seat. Trump won North Carolina by nearly 4 points in 2016, by 1 point in 2020, and 3 points in 2024.
But the state is more competitive when taking into account other elections. According to Inside Elections' Baseline, the typical GOP statewide candidate has just a 2.2-point advantage (50.9-48.6 percent). And this seat has featured two very close Senate races in the recent past. Tillis was first elected in 2014 when he defeated Democratic Sen. Kay Hagan, 48.8-47.3 percent. And he was re-elected in 2020, 48.7-46.9 percent, over Cal Cunningham.
Tillis is the seventh senator to announce they will not seek re-election. He joins four Democrats (Gary Peters of Michigan, Tina Smith of Minnesota, Jeanne Shaheen of New Hampshire and Dick Durbin of Illinois) and two fellow Republicans (Tommy Tuberville of Alabama and Mitch McConnell of Kentucky). There’s been an average of at least five open Senate seats each election year since Herbert Hoover was president and there were only 48 states in the union.