Minnesota Senate: Smith Decision Creates Open Seat
February 13, 2025 · 2:24 PM EST
DFL Sen. Tina Smith announced Thursday that she won’t seek re-election in 2026, creating an open seat that could become more competitive next year.
While Republicans are expressing initial confidence in the takeover opportunity, the GOP’s track record in Minnesota is not good. Republicans have won only one Senate race in Minnesota since Rod Grams won with 49 percent in the Republican wave of 1994. In 2002, Republican Norm Coleman won a tragic and unique race with 49.5 percent 11 days after DFL Sen. Paul Wellstone died in a plane crash.
Vice President Kamala Harris’ 51-47 percent victory over Donald Trump in 2024 masks the challenge Republicans have statewide. Democrats’ advantage in Minnesota has been fairly stable over the last decade. They had an 8-point Baseline advantage after the 2014 elections compared to a 7-point advantage today.
But Minnesota is not overwhelmingly Democratic and the open seat creates uncertainty. So we’re changing our rating from Solid Democratic to Battleground.
There’s no shortage of ambitious Democrats who could run to succeed Smith.
Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan didn’t waste any time in announcing her intention to run for the Senate. She would be the first Native American woman to serve in the upper chamber. And 2nd District Rep. Angie Craig is a strong fundraiser who regularly overperforms in her leftward-trending swing district in the Twin Cities suburbs.
Rep. Ilhan Omar, who represents the most Democratic part of the state, also said she’s considering a bid, though she would begin any primary as an underdog. The man who once held Omar’s seat, state Attorney General Keith Ellison, could be another progressive option.
Former Sen. Al Franken, who held Smith’s seat from 2009 to 2017, when he resigned after accusations of sexual misconduct, could have run again. But he was recently floated as a potential primary challenger in New York to Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand and quickly said he would support the DFL nominee in Minnesota.
As is the case in several other states, Minnesota’s gubernatorial election could complicate the Senate primary fields. Gov. Tim Walz is eligible to run for a third term but hasn’t made a public decision yet. While party strategists believed the former vice presidential nominee was leaning toward running again, Smith’s retirement gives him another option, and Politico reported that he was considering a Senate bid as well.
The prospect of an open gubernatorial race (whether Walz runs for Senate or forgoes a third term) could attract Democrats and Republicans who would otherwise be interested in running for Senate — and vice versa.
GOP Rep. Pete Stauber was the most-discussed name of potential gubernatorial prospects but could look at the Senate race now. So could House Majority Whip Tom Emmer, who gave a noncommittal statement in response to Smith’s news.