Florida and Ohio Appointments Fill Out Senate Battlefield
January 17, 2025 · 3:24 PM EST
By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales
The 2026 Senate map became a little clearer this week as the Republican governors of Florida and Ohio announced their picks to replace incoming Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Vice President J.D. Vance.
On Thursday, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis announced he would appoint state Attorney General Ashley Moody to fill Rubio’s seat once the senior senator is confirmed later this month. On Friday, Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine followed suit by naming Lieutenant Governor Jon Husted as the replacement for Vance, who resigned his seat earlier this month.
Moody and Husted will both serve until 2026, when their states will hold special elections for the remainder of those seats’ term. Since both Rubio and Vance last won in 2022, that means the winners of the special elections will have to run again in 2028 for a full term.
With the addition of two more states, 35 states will elect a senator next year. Democrats need a net gain of four seats for a majority.
Though both states were once swing states, Ohio and Florida begin just off the Senate battleground. While the political environment may worsen for Republicans over the next two years, the burden of proof is on Democrats to show they can recruit top-tier candidates and put reach states into contention. For now, both Ohio and Florida begin rated Solid Republican.
Ohio
DeWine’s choice of Husted is an uncontroversial pick that seemed to turn largely on Husted’s willingness to give up a planned 2026 gubernatorial bid, for which he would have had DeWine’s support but likely faced a competitive GOP primary.
Husted, 57, has held political office in Ohio since 2001, as a Dayton-area state legislator for a decade and as state secretary of state for two terms from 2011 to 2019. He withdrew from the 2018 GOP gubernatorial primary to join DeWine’s ticket.
In picking Husted, DeWine opted for a candidate that provides Democrats with fewer targets than a firebrand such as Vivek Ramaswamy, the 2024 presidential candidate who may now run for governor instead. But DeWine also avoided frustrating President-elect Donald Trump and his allies by picking state Sen. Matt Dolan, who DeWine endorsed in the GOP Senate primary last year.
Former Sen. Sherrod Brown, who lost his 2024 re-election to Republican Bernie Moreno by 4 points, may still be Democrats’ best bet at making the 2026 special election competitive. He has signaled an openness to running, but he just came off of a grueling two-year campaign and would be signing on to run in two straight cycles, including another presidential election year in 2028. Still, other potential Democratic candidates will give Brown time to make a decision before announcing their own plans. Former Rep. Tim Ryan, who lost the 2022 Senate race to Vance, has also expressed an interest in running.
Florida
Moody is a more conventional choice than some of the more provocative picks that were floated, such as first daughter-in-law/former RNC co-chairwoman Lara Trump. The 49-year-old former assistant U.S. attorney and state circuit court judge was elected state attorney general in 2018 and re-elected four years later. Moody will be the tenth Republican woman in the current Senate.
Her prospects in the special election likely hinge on Donald Trump’s support. With his endorsement, Moody shouldn’t have a difficult time winning the primary, but without it, the primary could get interesting. GOP Rep. Cory Mills indicated he planned to run no matter who the governor appointed. And there are other aspiring Republicans in the state, though they could run for governor to replace DeSantis, who is term-limited.
No matter what Democrats say publicly, Republicans start any statewide race in Florida with a considerable advantage. GOP Sen. Rick Scott just won re-election by 13 points in 2024 on the heels of Rubio’s 17-point victory in 2022. It’s also one of the most expensive states to advertise and Democrats don’t have a clear solution to addressing their decline among Hispanic voters.
Florida is one of the handful of states Democrats might need to get to the majority, but it’s not even on the battlefield yet.