Democrats defied expectations by expanding their Senate majority in 2022 — but what exactly were those expectations? And Republicans nominated a number of underwhelming candidates, but how much did they actually underperform? Vote Above Replacement (VAR) can provide some empirical context to 2022…
After two decades of GOP dominance, Georgia has now voted for Democratic senators three times in the past two years, most recently in this month’s runoff election. How did it happen?
A handful of key trends propelled Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock to victory in the Senate runoff. The Democratic…
Heading into the 2022 midterms, Republicans were confident that a Red Wave would sweep them back into power in Congress.
Ultimately, not only did a Red Wave fail to materialize, but Republicans barely cleared the lowest of bars they had set for themselves at the beginning of the cycle: winning…
Only the third Black member of Congress to be elected from Virginia, the late Rep. Donald McEachin left a long legacy of public service after representing the Richmond area in Congress and the Virginia state Legislature since the mid-1990s. In the weeks following the congressman’s death, several…
Sen. Kyrsten Sinema’s decision to leave the Democratic Party doesn’t have an immediate impact on Democrats’ control of the Senate — but it does complicate the 2024 battleground race in Arizona.
Since the senator said she will not caucus with Republicans, her decision will not affect Democrats’ new…
Democratic Members of Congress were bracing themselves for disaster. Running in a year marked by economic uncertainty — and widespread frustration with the direction that the country was heading in — incumbents in the party that controlled the federal government expected significant losses.
But…
With the 2022 midterm elections (almost) in the books, we can begin putting the results into the broader context of past results to see how much states and districts shifted. One of the best ways to identify shifts in partisanship is through our Baseline metric.
Baseline captures a state or…
One of the prevailing narratives of the 2022 midterms is that Democrats exceeded expectations because of underwhelming Republican candidates.
In late October, a New York Times/Siena College poll found that even though voters in the key battleground states of Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania…
It may sound familiar: a runoff in Georgia will help determine the balance of power in the United States Senate.
Because neither Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock nor Republican football legend Herschel Walker won a majority of the vote on Nov. 8, Georgia law requires the two to run in a second…
Updated as of Nov. 28, 2022 at 11:30am ET
By Erin Covey, Jacob Rubashkin, and Nathan Gonzales
Elections are humbling, and this time it’s Republicans’ turn for some soul searching.
Republicans were handed a tremendous opportunity in 2022. Midterm elections are typically a referendum on the party…
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