Archive

Barack Obama the Underdog Against ‘Change’ Slogan

by Stuart Rothenberg June 21, 2012 · 11:45 AM EDT

Back in October, President Barack Obama’s job approval rating stood at 44 percent in the NBC News/Wall Street Journal survey and only 17 percent of voters said that things in the country were “generally headed in the right direction.” Those numbers suggested that the president would lose…

Swing States, Battlegrounds and the 2012 Map

by Stuart Rothenberg June 19, 2012 · 3:37 PM EDT

Everyone has an opinion about swing states. I figured it was time to explain how I see the presidential map.

My approach isn’t based solely on statistics, though numbers matter a great deal. (I suppose this means that while I admire Oakland A’s general manager Billy Beane’s approach to…

Michigan: Big House Battles

by Jessica Taylor June 15, 2012 · 11:59 AM EDT

   Michigan offers a little bit of everything this year: a competitive general election in the 1st District that is the type of seat Democrats need to play in to take back the House, a long-time GOP incumbent being challenged by an outsider, a competitive Democratic primary, a member vs. member…

Arizona Senate: There’s a Wil, There Might be a Way

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 15, 2012 · 11:58 AM EDT

Richard Carmona has to be the only candidate in the country disavowing his connection to President Obama while also touting his ties to former President Bush. And that’s the least interesting part of his biography.

Democrats are in the midst of an intense love affair with their Senate candidate…

Tennessee House: Plenty of Volunteers for Congress

by Jessica Taylor June 15, 2012 · 11:57 AM EDT

 Before the 2010 elections, the Volunteer State delegation was split 5-4 in favor of Democrats. By the end of the cycle, most of the state’s remaining Blue Dogs had either chosen retirement or gone down in defeat like other Southern Democrats. The once purple state took on a decidedly red hue,…

Reflections on 20 Years as Accidental Columnist

by Stuart Rothenberg June 14, 2012 · 8:59 AM EDT

Twenty years ago this week, my first column appeared in the pages of Roll Call.

I had no intention of becoming a columnist or working for a newspaper, and I certainly had no expectation that two decades after my first column appeared in print I’d still be writing for Roll Call. As with most of…

Arizona 8: Caution—Special Results Ahead

by Jessica Taylor June 13, 2012 · 11:45 AM EDT

Democrat Ron Barber’s win over Republican Jesse Kelly in the Arizona special election to succeed former Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) should boost Democratic morale but does little, if anything, to change the outlook for control of the House this fall.

Of the special elections held this cycle,…