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2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) Kentucky - New Mexico

November 6, 2015 · 3:28 PM EST

KENTUCKY – Rand Paul (R) elected 2010 (56%). Paul’s run for president hasn’t caught fire but his re-election prospects received a boost after this week’s election results. Republicans took over the governorship and defeated state Auditor Adam Edelen, who was regarded as the most likely Democratic…

2016 Senate Overview (November 6, 2015) New York - Wyoming

November 6, 2015 · 3:27 PM EST

NEW YORK – Chuck Schumer (D) elected 1998 (55%), 2004 (71%), 2010 (66%). Schumer will win a fourth term. The only question is whether he will be the majority or minority leader in the next congress. Safe for Democrats.

NORTH CAROLINA – Richard Burr (R) elected 2004 (52%), 2010 (55%). The Tar Heel…

Cory Gardner for Veep? Don’t Laugh

by Stuart Rothenberg November 6, 2015 · 9:17 AM EST

Though I took notice of Colorado Sen. Cory Gardner’s endorsement of Sen. Marco Rubio for president, I didn’t immediately think about Gardner as a possible running mate for Rubio — until a CQ Roll Call colleague dropped that pearl of wisdom in my lap.

But there are plenty of reasons why Gardner…

What Does Bevin’s Victory in Kentucky Mean for Vitter’s Chances?

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2015 · 7:07 PM EST

Matt Bevin’s victory in the Kentucky governor’s race is yet another sobering reminder that polling is a risky business. And for some Republicans, Kentucky could be a glimmer of hope for GOP Sen. David Vitter’s gubernatorial bid in Louisiana.

Bevin’s victory wasn’t the political shockwave on par…

Fiorina Has No Clear Lane to GOP Nomination

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2015 · 9:16 AM EST

Carly Fiorina is popular among Republicans, both nationally and in Iowa. And yet, when those same Republicans are asked to name their preferred candidate for president, they generally don’t select her. Why?

Is it simply, as some have suggested, that Republicans don’t want to vote for a woman, or…

Don’t Blame Gerrymandering for GOP Civil War

by Nathan L. Gonzales October 30, 2015 · 9:01 AM EDT

Blame the earmark ban or Republican leaders. Blame Ted Cruz or even Justin Bieber. But don’t blame gerrymandering for the fighting in the House.

As Republicans labor through replacing Speaker John A. Boehner, bemoaning redistricting has become a common refrain in explaining the GOP civil war.

Cruz and Jindal Wait Impatiently for Their Chances

by Stuart Rothenberg October 29, 2015 · 9:01 AM EDT

Bobby Jindal and Ted Cruz continue to plug away in Iowa, far back from the front-runners. But both are well aware that if Ben Carson turns out to be little more than Herman Cain, a political outsider who briefly sat atop the 2012 field, each of them could have his own moment.

Cruz and Jindal are…

Why the Next Month Is Critical for Bush

by Stuart Rothenberg October 28, 2015 · 10:10 AM EDT

It’s still more than three months before the Iowa caucuses, but the next four weeks are crucial for former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, who started with the kinds of political assets that led many to regard him as the front-runner in the GOP race.

More than 10 months after Bush announced he would be…