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New York 3: Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 8, 2016 · 3:27 PM EST

Former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee chairman Steve Israel spent years defending competitive open seats, but now his retirement leaves one behind.

Israel announced Tuesday he would not seek re-election in November after 16 years in the House. His retirement wasn’t a complete…

Report Shorts (January 8, 2016) Alabama, Minnesota, New Hampshire, North Carolina, Pennsylvania

January 8, 2016 · 3:26 PM EST

Alabama Primary Elections. At the end of September, GOP Rep. Martha Roby had $734,000 in campaign funds while her opponent was over $2,000 in debt. But allies of the congresswoman and fellow Rep. Bradley Byrne are watching their March 1 primaries closely. 

On paper, Roby’s 2nd District race…

Predicting the Future and Other Delusions

by Stuart Rothenberg January 8, 2016 · 9:34 AM EST

Barry Ritholtz, a financial planner and asset manager, writes a regular column in The Washington Post’s business section. I read him religiously, and his last column of 2015, on financial prognosticators, offered important observations for anyone interested in politics, sports or Wall Street.

I…

Ted Cruz Might Not Need Trump Supporters

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 7, 2016 · 10:49 AM EST

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz is poised to absorb Donald Trump’s supporters when the billionaire exits the race for the GOP presidential nomination, according to one of the campaign’s most common narratives. But how many Trump supporters are open to supporting another candidate?

The quickest analysis of the…

Steve Israel Retirement Sets Up GOP Takeover Opportunity

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 6, 2016 · 9:28 AM EST

Former Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chairman Steve Israel spent years defending competitive seats open seats, but now his retirement leaves one behind.

Israel announced on Tuesday that he would not seek re-election in November after 16 years in the House. His retirement wasn’t a…

Will ‘Electability’ Sink Trump?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 5, 2016 · 9:30 AM EST

Most national polls show Republican frontrunner Donald Trump trailing likely Democratic presidential nominee Hillary Clinton and faring worse than other GOP hopefuls against her.

That raises an obvious question: Could doubts about Trump’s strength in a general election derail his bid for the…

Indiana Senate: Is Stutzman Still the Club for Growth’s Guy?

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 28, 2015 · 9:00 AM EST

The Club for Growth endorsed GOP Rep. Marlin Stutzman in the Indiana Senate race this summer, but the congressman was a glaring omission from the anti-tax group’s end-of-the-year fundraising email.

The email from Club President David McIntosh highlighted House candidates Jim Banks of Indiana and…

Virginia 5: Hurt to Retire, Leaves Potentially Competitive Seat

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 23, 2015 · 4:02 PM EST

Three-term GOP Rep. Robert Hurt announced his retirement, leaving behind a potentially competitive open seat in Virginia. 

The 5th District includes Charlottesville but runs south to the border with North Carolina. 

On one hand, the district is competitive. Democrat Tom Perriello defeated GOP…

New York 22: Hanna Retirement Puts Seat At Risk for Republicans

by Nathan L. Gonzales December 21, 2015 · 4:50 PM EST

Moderate Republican Rep. Richard Hanna of New York plans to announce his retirement, leaving a competitive open seat for Republicans to defend.

The news, which was first reported early Sunday morning by The Post-Standard in Syracuse, shouldn’t come as a complete surprise. He is a 64-year-old…