Archive

Trump’s Fast Start Likely Puts the House in Play in 2018

by Stuart Rothenberg January 30, 2017 · 10:43 AM EST

President Donald Trump is off to a fast start, but that aggressiveness could produce the same sort of reaction that Barack Obama’s fast start did in 2009: It could lead to a midterm election in which voters apply the brakes.

In 2010, voters told President Obama that he had gone too far, too fast,…

Ohio Senate: Bull’s-eye on the Buckeye State

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:20 PM EST

No, you don’t have vertigo from the 2016 elections. Some candidates have already announced their campaigns for the 2018 midterm elections, including Ohio Republican Josh Mandel. And no, you’re not experiencing déjà vu, Mandel faced Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown in 2012, and is on track to do so…

South Carolina 5 Special: Mulvaney Moving On

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:19 PM EST

South Carolina was supposed to be the place where Jeb Bush resurrected his campaign. The place where Donald Trump’s momentum would be stalled. But Trump prevailed in the Palmetto State primary last year, and now he’s tapped two South Carolina Republicans for initial cabinet-level positions.

Trump…

Women’s March: A Moment or a Movement?

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 27, 2017 · 4:18 PM EST

Less than 24 hours after Donald Trump took the oath of office, hundreds of thousands of women descended onto the streets of Washington, D.C. in protest of the new president. 

There were immediate comparisons to the Tea Party movement that began in 2009 with rallies against new President Barack…

How President Trump Can Avoid President Obama’s Biggest Mistake

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 25, 2017 · 11:23 AM EST

Donald Trump’s critics believe the new president is clueless (or worse), but he might be on track to avoid repeating former President Barack Obama’s biggest political mistake. 

Trump’s pre-inaugural press conference was widely panned, but his comments on the future of health care legislation were…

Does the NRSC Have the Right Message for 2018?

by Stuart Rothenberg January 24, 2017 · 10:40 AM EST

The National Republican Senatorial Committee’s assault on Democratic senators up for re-election in 2018 has already begun.

That committee has sent out more than half a dozen press releases since the beginning of the year attacking Democratic senators facing re-election from states carried by…

The Certainty of Death, Taxes, and White Evangelicals

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 19, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

As the electorate evolves with each election cycle because of changing demographics, there is one constant: white evangelicals. Once again, they made up one-quarter of the electorate and voted heavily for the Republican presidential nominee.

White voters, as a share of the electorate, have been on…

House Republicans Entrust Majority to Rogers at NRCC

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 18, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

Midterm elections are supposed to be trouble for the president’s party, but House Republicans are confident that if they have a problem, John Rogers can solve it.

Rogers was born in Amsterdam, New York, a small-town about a half-hour west of Albany, but Republican friends know him best for once…

The First Time I Met Illinois Senate Candidate Barack Obama

by Stuart Rothenberg January 17, 2017 · 8:30 AM EST

With the end of the Obama Administration approaching, I recently looked back at the notes from my two meetings with Barack Obama during his run for the United States Senate.  Obama was not well known then, and he was regarded as nothing more than a long-shot for the Democratic nomination. 

I first…

2018 Senate Overview: Opportunity vs. Responsibility

by Nathan L. Gonzales January 13, 2017 · 2:00 PM EST

It’s early. The dust has barely settled on the 2016 elections and seven new senators have been in office for less than a couple of weeks, but the 2018 midterm elections have already begun. 

Some potential candidates are already posturing for statewide bids and at least a dozen vulnerable…