Inside Elections

2018 House Ratings (June 2, 2017)

June 2, 2017 · 2:25 PM EDT

Key Counties to Watch in Montana’s Special Congressional Election

by Robert Yoon May 25, 2017 · 9:30 AM EDT

BOZEMAN, MONTANA -- Wednesday’s unusual confrontation between Republican Greg Gianforte and a political reporter have given a boost to Democratic hopes of picking off the vacant Montana at-large House seat previously held by now-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. Although Democratic nominee Rob Quist…

Time for a Second Look at the Senate in 2018?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 25, 2017 · 8:58 AM EDT

The numbers are daunting for Senate Democrats.

The party needs to net three seats to retake the Senate, and with only eight Republican Senate seats up in 2018 compared to 25 Democratic seats, Democratic prospects are bleak. (Two of those Democratic seats are Independents who caucus with the…

2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs for GOP

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

After the 2016 elections, I’ve ruled out ruling things out. 

Of course not every result has an equal chance of coming true, but I think it’s OK to embrace uncertainty for a set of elections that won’t take place for another year-and-a-half. Roughly the same people who were certain Hillary Clinton…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

May 19, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%). 2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent after Roby pulled her support from Trump because of the…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Kansas - New York

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kansas.
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election). Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate (former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis) makes this an interesting race, even though Trump won handily. Davis lost the 2014 gubernatorial race…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

May 19, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.
9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected 58%). Trump 54%. The federal investigation into the congressman closed without charges, but Democrats aren’t letting Pittenger off the hook. The party is poised to land an interesting recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is…

2018 House Ratings (May 19, 2017)

May 19, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2017 · 11:40 AM EDT

You’ve probably never heard of James Kane, but elected officials, party strategists, and even some reporters could learn from his perspective as a behavioral scientist (instead of a partisan hack) about how to fracture President Donald Trump’s base and the future of the two parties. 

I rarely have…

Should Democrats Recruit Pragmatists or Progressives?

by Stuart Rothenberg May 16, 2017 · 8:55 AM EDT

A Republican friend of mine recently argued Democrats need to run candidates like former congressman Heath Shuler if they are going to become competitive again as a national party. The Democrats, he insisted, are just too liberal, especially culturally, to win where they must.

Given the Democrats’…