Inside Elections

2018 House Ratings (November 5, 2018)

November 5, 2018 · 10:45 AM EST

2018 Election Preview: Embrace the Uncertainty

November 1, 2018 · 2:30 PM EDT

By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam

Two years is long enough to forget how crazy the last week of the elections is. From rumors of surprise races to breaking news events with unknown political consequences, each cycle often includes a fast and furious finish.

In the midst of uncertainty (and…

Gubernatorial Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alaska. Open; Bill Walker (I), not seeking re-election. Independent Gov. Bill Walker dropped his re-election bid, boosting the prospects of former Democratic Sen. Mark Begich. The two men were at risk of dividing Democratic and left-of-center voters, which would have allowed Republican Mike…

Senate Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:28 PM EDT

Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. There was a brief moment when it looked liked GOP Rep. Martha McSally had pulled even with or even slightly ahead of Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema, but that appears to have dissipated. The vast majority of the latest data show Sinema with a…

House Report Shorts (Nov. 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:27 PM EDT

Please refer to the Oct. 26 issue for summaries of every competitive House race on our ratings chart. The following are districts with news, analysis, or polling within the last week. 

California’s 10th District (Jeff Denham, R, re-elected 52%). Clinton 49%. There’s some still some conflicting…

Introducing Inside Elections Baseline and Vote Above Replacement (VAR)

November 1, 2018 · 2:26 PM EDT

By Ryan Matsumoto

Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.

Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s…

2018 Senate Ratings (November 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:25 PM EDT

2018 House Ratings (November 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:24 PM EDT

2018 Gubernatorial Ratings (November 1, 2018)

November 1, 2018 · 2:23 PM EDT

For Handicapping Midterm Races, Old Rules May No Longer Apply

by Stuart Rothenberg November 1, 2018 · 7:15 AM EDT

Political handicapping is more than looking at polls and regurgitating who is ahead. Throughout an election cycle, there are signs political handicappers use to understand what is happening at a given moment and to project how races will play out in the weeks or months ahead.

During the endgame,…