Archive

2020 House Overview: The Bernie Factor

February 21, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

By Jacob Rubashkin & Nathan L. Gonzales

The House majority wasn’t regarded as in play, unless Democrats were to nominate Bernie Sanders for president. Now that the Vermont senator is a legitimate frontrunner, his impact from the top of the ticket on Democratic control of the House should be taken…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): Alabama - Iowa

February 21, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

Arizona. 
1st District (Northeastern Arizona) Tom O’Halleran, D, re-elected 54%.
Trump 48%. Republican attorney Tiffany Shedd, who lost in the 2018 primary, is running again and was expected to be a better candidate. But she had just $112,000 in campaign funds on Dec. 31. Former state Sen. Barbara…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): Kansas - New York

February 21, 2020 · 2:28 PM EST

Kansas. 
2nd District (Topeka, Lawrence, eastern rural Kansas) Steve Watkins, R, elected 48%.
Trump 56%. Watkins ethical problems made this race closer than it should have been in 2018 and it could be a GOP problem once again. State Treasurer Jake LaTurner had $591,000 in the bank on Dec. 31 but…

2020 House Overview (February 21, 2020): North Carolina - Wyoming

February 21, 2020 · 2:27 PM EST

North Carolina. 
2nd District (Raleigh) Open; George Holding, R, not seeking re-election.
Clinton 60%. Court-ordered redistricting redrew the 2nd to encompass deep-blue Raleigh and much of surrounding Wake County. Rather than fight for his life, Holding chose to retire. 2016 Senate nominee Deborah…

Maine Senate: Is Susan Collins Already Behind?

by Stuart Rothenberg February 21, 2020 · 2:26 PM EST

A February 10-13 SocialSphere survey for Colby College (my alma mater) about the Maine Senate race certainly generated plenty of buzz on Tuesday. My own reaction was less than enthusiastic.

I tweeted that “The ballot test is not consistent with other (unreleased) numbers, and it conveys a…

2020 House Ratings (February 21, 2020)

February 21, 2020 · 2:25 PM EST

RIP, Election Night

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 21, 2020 · 9:40 AM EST

It’s time to retire the term “election night.”

The semi-annual national tradition of staying up a few hours past bedtime to know who will control our government is over. From close races to voting by mail to human error, it’s becoming clear that counting votes no longer fits neatly into prime-time…

Five Thoughts After the Las Vegas Democratic Debate

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 20, 2020 · 10:35 AM EST

I don’t have a bad Las Vegas-themed pun, just a few thoughts after Wednesday night’s Democratic tussle.

The sharp tone of the debate matched the high stakes. Candidacies are on the line. Aspirations are hanging in the balance. And a second term for President Donald Trump is staring the Democratic…

Indiana 5: Ready to Run

by Nathan L. Gonzales February 7, 2020 · 2:30 PM EST

Indiana’s 5th District isn’t at the top of Democrats’ takeover target list, but the race is a good barometer for at least two key trends: the blue shift in the suburbs and the challenge for House Republicans to even maintain their small number of women on Capitol Hill. 

\Even though Donald Trump…

Presidential Battlegrounds: Pennsylvania

by Ryan Matsumoto February 7, 2020 · 2:29 PM EST

While Hillary Clinton’s campaign has often been criticized for ignoring Wisconsin and Michigan, the reality is that even if she had won those two states, she still would have lost because of Pennsylvania, where she campaigned heavily. As Democrats strategize about how they can reassemble the ‘Blue…