Predicting election outcomes can be a fraught business. You don’t have to look further than the 2016 presidential race to see that.
But for some races, one candidate has such an advantage -- due to the constituency’s partisan lean, candidate quality, or other factors -- that their path to…
After taking over a seat Donald Trump carried in 2016, Jeff Van Drew might have thought switching to the GOP was the best way to survive. But that path has become more complicated as support for the president slumps in New Jersey and nationwide.
In 2018, Democrats cheered when Van Drew, a longtime…
At the time of Ted Kennedy’s death in 2009, Massachusetts had been represented by a Kennedy in the Senate for 54 of the previous 56 years.
Now, the scion of America’s most famous family seeks to reclaim the perch from which his forefathers exercised their national influence. There’s just one…
Texas’ 22nd District — Rating: Toss-Up
Interview Date: June 24, 2020 (via Google Meet)
Date of Birth: October 6, 1978; Ruston, La.
Education: Univ. of Texas, Austin (2002); Harvard (MPA, 2017)
Elected Office: None; 2018 Democratic nominee for the 22nd District
Current Outlook: Kulkarni came up…
California’s 4th District — Rating: Solid Republican
Interview Date: June 23, 2020 (via Google Meet)
Date of Birth: February 29, 1984; Pittsfield, Mass.
Education: Yale (2006); London School of Economics (MBA, 2012)
Elected Office: None. First run for office.
Current Outlook: Kennedy is…
There’s little reason to believe Joe Biden’s polling lead has changed over the last fortnight, but that advantage over President Donald Trump still sits in a league of its own.
Across 17 national polls released during the past two weeks, Biden led Trump by an average of 7.5 points (48.5 percent to…
While much of what happens during a presidential race is hidden these days, the campaigns can’t hide their TV buys. Now, a few months into the general election, the advertising reveals volumes about campaign strategies and resources.
Since April 1, a reasonable start date to the Trump-Biden…
7/24/20, 12:30pm: This article has been updated with more recent polling averages.
A month ago, a public poll showed President Donald Trump leading Joe Biden by just 2 points in Arkansas. That would be easy to dismiss as an outlier, considering Trump won the state by 27 points four years ago,…
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