By Ryan Matsumoto
Inside Elections’ new statistic, which we’re calling Baseline, captures a clear picture of a congressional district or state’s political performance by accounting for all federal and state executive election results.
Baseline is defined as the trimmed mean of each party’s performance in partisan, contested statewide elections. It…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
After two years of prognostication, election results are supposed to bring clarity. But the 2018 results are poised to be a mixed bag, making it difficult to land on a single narrative.
With President Donald Trump’s mediocre job approval rating nationally, the Senate…
Arizona. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election.
Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema held a narrow but distinct advantage over GOP Rep. Martha McSally before and after the August primaries. There is some conflicting data, but that lead appears to have dissolved. And some Republicans believe McSally has captured a…
Declaring 2018 anything but the Year of the Woman is heresy by now. It’s consistently, casually mentioned as a matter of fact. This year‘s regarded as a natural succession to 1992, which was the last time an election resulted in the number of women in the House…
Weather metaphors are often used (and overused) in election analysis, but there’s a better way to describe the Republicans’ challenge in 2018. The GOP is dealing with many headaches as it tries to preserve the Republican congressional majorities.
From tension to cluster to migraine, they can vary in frequency and…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
With less than a month before Nov. 6, the fundamentals of these midterm elections are set and broadly good news for Democrats. But with dozens of close races around the country, a shift of just a couple points across the board is the…
ARIZONA. Open; Jeff Flake (R) not seeking re-election. The most recent NBC/Marist Poll is the latest in a series of September surveys that finds Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema narrowly leading GOP Rep. Martha McSally. Since a Sept. 5 OH Predictive Insights poll found the Republican congresswoman ahead by 3 points,…
After two years of campaigning in the latest most consequential election of our lifetimes, election night could be a huge letdown. The disappointment is not about which party prevails Nov. 6, but the reality that a combination of close races and West Coast contests could prevent enough races from being…
I’m pretty sure three new profiles of Texas Democrat Beto O’Rourke have been published in the time it took me to write this lede. Yet the only thing more remarkable than the sheer volume of stories written about the congressman is that none of them put his 2012 House victory…
By Nathan L. Gonzales and Leah Askarinam
After nearly two years of campaigning, 52 days is still plenty of time for the midterm elections to develop.
Most of the races are finally fully engaged and the rest of September will be the proving ground for the effectiveness of GOP attack…
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