The 2020 campaign isn’t quite over yet, but it is reaching the denouement. And as the final surveys continue to trickle in until Tuesday, now is a great time to step back and contextualize the trends driving the past six months of general election polls.
Starting off with today’s topline:…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
No matter what happens, the 2020 elections will be historic. With impeachment, a pandemic, economic crisis, a national conversation about racism, and the death of a Supreme Court icon, this election cycle is already unforgettable, even before knowing the actual results.
While it’s…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
The unthinkable has happened. A resilient presidential race has shifted, but not in a way that was expected.
In the aftermath of President Donald Trump’s first debate performance and subsequent hospitalization for coronavirus, Joe Biden’s national standing has improved by a couple of…
We’re 17 days removed from the first presidential debate, 14 days removed from President Donald Trump’s coronavirus diagnosis, and 18 days away from November 3rd. It might feel like a year, but it’s only been two weeks — and following the fallout of these campaign-shaking events, Joe Biden finds himself…
In light of last night’s news about President Donald Trump and First Lady Melania Trump testing positive for the coronavirus, there’s no doubt that this election has already received an October surprise. Pair this development with Tuesday night’s rowdy presidential debate, and it’s easy to conjure up the narrative of…
While Supreme Court Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death will go down as yet another historic event in 2020, it’s unlikely to change the fundamental trajectory of the elections.
In the middle of huge breaking news stories, it can be hard to remember that the country is incredibly polarized and the…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
While the race for the White House dominates the news, the fight for the Senate is closer.
The easiest thing to do after 2016 would be to declare every race with President Donald Trump on the ballot as a toss-up. But that would…
In the recent documentary film Boys State, a thousand high schoolers from across Texas gather in Austin for a whirlwind week of mock elections for various state offices including governor. Although the political parties and platforms are fictional, the participants campaigning for office often take conservative stances on real-life issues…
The race for the Oval Office remains steady — although a case could be made that there’s been slight tightening in favor of the president.
In an average of 24 polls conducted over the past two weeks, Joe Biden led Donald Trump by 6.9 points (49.1 percent to 42.2 percent).
…The biggest political realignment in the 2016 presidential election was a shift based on education. President Donald Trump made major gains for a Republican among non-college educated voters, while Hillary Clinton made major gains for a Democrat among college-educated voters.
This trend manifested in traditionally Republican Georgia, where Clinton made…
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