House News & Analysis

Georgia 6 Special: Down to the Wire

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 2, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

It shouldn’t have been a surprise when Democrats lost two special elections in districts Donald Trump won by over 20 points, but explaining away a loss in Georgia’s 6th District, where Hillary Clinton narrowly lost to Trump would be much more difficult. Thankfully for Democrats, Jon Ossoff is well within…

Montana At-Large: Dems Eye 2018 in Wake of Gianforte Victory

by Robert Yoon June 2, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

MISSOULA, MONTANA – Republican Greg Gianforte’s six-point win last week over musician Rob Quist to fill Montana’s lone U.S. House seat continues the GOP’s 20-year stranglehold on state congressional races. But given the chaotic manner in which the race ended, as well as long-standing political trends in midterm elections, state…

Minnesota House Races: Majority at Stake

by Nathan L. Gonzales June 2, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

Donald Trump came close to breaking Republicans’ presidential losing streak in Minnesota that has spanned over four decades, though he didn’t need the 10 electoral votes anyway. Next year, the North Star State will be one of the most critical battlegrounds in the fight for the House. 

At least a…

Candidate Conversation - Jim Hagedorn (R)

June 2, 2017 · 2:26 PM EDT

Candidate for Minnesota’s 1st District

Interview Date: May 24, 2017

Date of Birth: August 4, 1962; Blue Earth, Minn.

Education: George Mason Univ. (1993)

Political Office: None 

Current Outlook: Hagedorn is a leading contender for the GOP nomination in an open seat created by DFL Rep. Tim Walz’s run for…

Key Counties to Watch in Montana’s Special Congressional Election

by Robert Yoon May 25, 2017 · 9:30 AM EDT

BOZEMAN, MONTANA -- Wednesday’s unusual confrontation between Republican Greg Gianforte and a political reporter have given a boost to Democratic hopes of picking off the vacant Montana at-large House seat previously held by now-Interior Secretary Ryan Zinke. Although Democratic nominee Rob Quist has kept the race surprisingly close, Gianforte still…

2018 House Overview: Early Warning Signs for GOP

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:30 PM EDT

After the 2016 elections, I’ve ruled out ruling things out. 

Of course not every result has an equal chance of coming true, but I think it’s OK to embrace uncertainty for a set of elections that won’t take place for another year-and-a-half. Roughly the same people who were certain Hillary…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Alabama - Iowa

May 19, 2017 · 2:29 PM EDT

Alabama.
2nd District (Martha Roby, R, re-elected in 2016 with 49%).
2016 Presidential Winner: Trump 65%. The congresswoman was re-elected with less than 50 percent last year when a conservative write-in candidate received nearly 11 percent after Roby pulled her support from Trump because of the Access Hollywood tape.…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) Kansas - New York

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 19, 2017 · 2:28 PM EDT

Kansas.
2nd District (Open; Lynn Jenkins, R, not seeking re-election).
Trump 56%. The combination of an open seat and a strong Democratic candidate (former state House Minority Leader Paul Davis) makes this an interesting race, even though Trump won handily. Davis lost the 2014 gubernatorial race to Gov. Sam…

2018 House Overview (May 19, 2017) North Carolina - Wyoming

May 19, 2017 · 2:27 PM EDT

North Carolina.
9th District (Robert Pittenger, R, re-elected 58%)
. Trump 54%. The federal investigation into the congressman closed without charges, but Democrats aren’t letting Pittenger off the hook. The party is poised to land an interesting recruit: solar energy financier Dan McCready, who is a Duke University and Harvard…

Lessons for Trump Detractors, Members of Congress From a Loyalty Expert

by Nathan L. Gonzales May 18, 2017 · 11:40 AM EDT

You’ve probably never heard of James Kane, but elected officials, party strategists, and even some reporters could learn from his perspective as a behavioral scientist (instead of a partisan hack) about how to fracture President Donald Trump’s base and the future of the two parties. 

I rarely have time…