Christopher Sebastian is a Senior Analyst for Kantar/CMAG
House Majority PAC has never been afraid to spend money.
Still, the Democratic stalwart of Super PAC spending has, for the past decade, limited its involvement in off-cycle and pre-primary activity. Even as other outside PACs have grown more willing to broadcast…
By Nathan L. Gonzales & Jacob Rubashkin
With census data in hand and President Joe Biden’s job performance in the spotlight, the fight for the House is well underway. Republicans came into the cycle with history and redistricting on their side, but now might have the added benefit of a…
Alabama. Current delegation breakdown: 6 Republicans, 1 Democrat. Jan. 28 filing deadline. May 24 primary. July 26 runoff (if necessary). No partisan changes expected in the Yellowhammer State, which will retain its seven-member delegation. There is a competitive primary brewing in the 5th District (Northern Alabama), where GOP Rep. Mo…
Kansas. Current breakdown: 3R, 1D. June 1 filing deadline. Aug. 2 primary. Republicans are focused on defeating Democratic Rep. Sharice Davids, who defeated GOP Rep. Kevin Yoder in the 3rd District in 2018 and won re-election in 2020. Biden won the district, so Republicans will likely divide Democrats in the…
North Carolina. Current breakdown: 8R, 5D (Apportionment: +1 seat). Dec. 17, 2021 filing deadline. March 8 primary. April 26 runoff (if necessary). Republicans control the state legislature, and even though Gov. Roy Cooper is a Democrat, he has no say in the redistricting process. A lot depends on how aggressive…
On Thursday, the Census Bureau released its first set of long-awaited local data, kicking off what promises to be a consequential and messy redistricting process. Over the next six months (or so), states will take that block-level population and racial data and draw new congressional and legislative districts to use…
It’s time to stop attacking candidates for losing a previous race. It’s just silly and ignores history. The partisan and glib attacks aren’t predictive of anything and ignore dozens of examples of candidates who lost before winning.
The latest example is in Iowa, where former Rep. Abby Finkenauer announced her…
For the first time in 30 years, Montana is poised to send not one but two people to the House of Representatives. That’s because the state grew 9.6 percent over the last decade, more than the national average and enough to earn back its second congressional seat in the decennial…
Three House special elections in the last two weeks produced one new lawmaker and two more party nominees who are likely to join him this fall. And with the House so evenly divided, literally every seat and every vote matters.
Mike Carey (R) Ohio’s 15th District
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Voters in two Ohio congressional districts went to the polls Tuesday to select the Democratic and Republican nominees, who are now significant favorites in the special general elections on November 2.
In Ohio’s 11th, the Cleveland-based seat most recently held by HUD Secretary Marcia Fudge, Cuyahoga County Councilwoman Shontel Brown…
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