House News & Analysis

House Overview: What’s In Play?

by Stuart Rothenberg November 15, 2011 · 9:34 AM EST

Aside from House Minority Leader Nancy Pelosi’s (Calif.) prediction to ABC News back in early June that her party had “a very good chance of winning the House,” national Democrats have been cautious about predicting a takeover next November.

That’s the way it should be, of course, given…

Is This the Ugliest Redistricting Cycle Ever?

by Stuart Rothenberg November 11, 2011 · 9:21 AM EST

Redistricting is always messy and partisan. But this redistricting cycle, which won’t be finished until sometime next year, is particularly ugly and hypocritical.

In Arizona, the governor, with the support of two-thirds of the state Senate, removed the chairman of her state’s redistricting commission. In Illinois, Ohio, North…

California 52: It’s Always Sunny in Bilbray’s District

by Nathan L. Gonzales November 4, 2011 · 11:58 AM EDT

The forecast for California’s newly drawn 52nd District next year calls for perfect weather but a hot congressional race.

It’s easy for Cong. Brian Bilbray’s colleagues to be jealous of his San Diegoarea district. But a new set of congressional lines puts the GOP congressman in the unenviable…

Do the PPP Polls Mean Anything?

by Stuart Rothenberg November 4, 2011 · 11:57 AM EDT

A recent memo by Public Policy Polling Director Tom Jensen proclaimed that the firm’s recent batch of surveys “shows Democrats can take House in 2012.”

While it is too early to know whether the party will gain the 25 seats it needs for a majority, it’s pretty clear…

Maryland House: New Map Endangers Bartlett

November 4, 2011 · 11:54 AM EDT

Democrats passed a new congressional map that puts long-time Cong. Roscoe Bartlett’s (R) electoral career on life-support.

Early on it looked like Democrats would target freshman Cong. Andy Harris (R), but his Eastern Shore district looks safe. Meanwhile, Bartlett went from having a miniscule portion of Montgomery County,…

Nevada House: Democrats Could Win Three of Four Seats

November 4, 2011 · 11:53 AM EDT

A court finally drew a map after legislators couldn’tdecide on a compromise and Democrats should be pleased.

Nevada gained a seat during reapportionment and the new lines give Democrats an opportunity to win three of the state’s four seats.

Cong. Mark Amodei (R), who just won a…

Utah House: Matheson’s Tough Decision

November 4, 2011 · 11:52 AM EDT

Republicans passed a new congressional map that puts Democratic Cong. Jim Matheson (D) in jeopardy.

Matheson’s been in Republican districts before but now Republicans are giving him new territory. The Democratic congressman ruled out running for the U.S. Senate, leaving a gubernatorial run, re-election, or retirement as his…

So You Want to Be a Political Handicapper, Part II

by Stuart Rothenberg November 2, 2011 · 9:49 AM EDT

In my last column, I reported on my reactions after recently interviewing five House candidates. Here are my thoughts on the other five, all Democrats, whom I saw during a day of “speed interviewing.”

Ann Kuster (New Hampshire’s 2nd district). Kuster has already emerged as one of the…

Think You Can Be a Political Handicapper?

by Stuart Rothenberg October 28, 2011 · 11:49 AM EDT

After meeting and interviewing Missouri Republican Congressional candidate Ann Wagner on Monday, I had the opportunity the following day to interview nine Democratic House candidates in less than four hours — the political version of speed dating.

Yes, national party strategists set up the interviews with the nine…

Stu’s Dangerous Dozen: Unsafe House Incumbents

by Stuart Rothenberg October 26, 2011 · 11:22 AM EDT

For years now, I’ve been running lists of vulnerable open seats and incumbents, so there is no reason to wait until all states have completed redistricting. Here are the most vulnerable incumbents who are currently planning on seeking re-election. One caveat: I have excluded incumbents running against incumbents, whether…