The Most Evenly-Divided Counties in the Country
October 17, 2025 · 11:24 AM EDT
If you count the number of swing states on two hands, you will have more than a few fingers to spare. Not so at the county level.
For the first time, Inside Elections has calculated Baseline scores for all 3,142 counties in the United States (excluding Kalawao County, Hawaii, the nation’s tiniest). Thirty-eight of those, or around 1 percent, were within a single point, making them the nation’s most evenly divided counties.
See Baseline for every county in the country in table form here, and in interactive map form here.
Inside Elections’ Baseline is a novel and unparalleled metric available at the county level. Baseline approximates what a “typical” Democrat or Republican might receive in an election by combining all federal and state election results over the past four election cycles into a single trimmed mean.
Of these 38 evenly-divided counties, 27 voted for Trump in 2024. Seventeen flipped from Biden to Trump.
Five of the seven major battleground states (all except Nevada and Pennsylvania) had counties represented in the list. These swing communities stretch from the industrial mid-Atlantic to the Pacific coast and offer a window into America’s electoral and demographic diversity. They include rapidly growing Sun Belt metro hubs, historically conservative suburbs that have become competitive, heavily Black rural counties, Midwestern counties anchored by towns or small cities, college campuses, and remote Native‑American areas.
Working-Class Midwest and East Coast
Many counties in the Midwest were built on manufacturing and small industry. Demographically, these places tend to be whiter and less college-educated Rust Belt communities that reliably backed Donald Trump in the past three elections.
Take Macomb County, Mich., an ancestral battleground and bellwether located northeast of Detroit, that voted for Barack Obama twice before swinging 16 points toward Trump in 2016. In recent cycles, Macomb has backed Democrats in midterms and Republicans in presidential years. The county’s Baseline margin flipped from D+0.3 in 2022 to R+0.8 in 2024.
Mower County, Minn., and Winneshiek County, Iowa, both backed Obama by double digits then voted for Trump three times — and according to Baseline, Republicans now have a 0.8-point advantage in both counties.
Wisconsin’s two evenly-divided counties reflect similar patterns. Kenosha County voted for Democrats in 15 of the 17 presidential elections following World War II — before Trump carried it by 238 votes in 2016. On the Badger State’s western border is Vernon County, where 95 percent of the population is white and 25 percent of adults have a bachelor’s degree, compared to the national average of 36 percent.
Many working-class and exurban communities in the Mid-Atlantic share a similar political DNA to the Rust Belt. Some of Republicans’ most surprising gains in 2024 came in New York and New Jersey — a story which plays out on the list of closest counties.
According to Baseline, three evenly-divided counties in South Jersey — Atlantic, Cumberland, and Gloucester — shifted toward Republicans last cycle. All three voted for Biden in 2020 then flipped to Trump in 2024. Compared to the similar communities in the Midwest, these counties are more racially diverse, with similar rates of college attainment. The economy is a top issue: Cumberland County has the highest poverty rate in the state.
New York’s Orange County is another example. Including exurbs in the Hudson Valley north of New York City, it was a presidential bellwether for three decades — before breaking the streak in 2020 to back Trump by just 113 votes. Trump ultimately carried Orange County three times, and in 2024, its Baseline flipped to narrowly favor Republicans.
Prince Edward County, Va., also changed columns according to our metric. The county voted for Democrats in all five presidential elections from 2004 to 2020, but Trump carried it in 2024 by 243 votes. Another Biden-Trump flip, Kent County, Md., is new to this year’s list of evenly-divided counties: its Baseline tightened from D+2.7 to D+0.9.
Sun Belt Rising
One persistent theme in recent elections has been the growing significance of the Southwest. The most evenly-divided counties in this region tend to be large — featuring high Latino or Mormon populations, sprawling suburban growth, and cross-pressures between socially moderate professionals and working-class conservatives.
A great example is Maricopa County, Ariz. The fourth-largest county in the country, it contains nearly two-thirds of the state’s population (and anchors seven of its nine congressional districts). Maricopa County has a long history as a Republican stronghold, but it’s become highly competitive in recent years — and a win in carrying the county typically means carrying the state. The GOP had a 1-point advantage in our 2022 Baseline calculations, but after 2024 the margin is D+0.1.
Another epicenter — Salt Lake County, Utah — vaulted onto this year’s list of closest counties. This shift, from R+4.3 in 2022 to D+0.2 in 2024, happened downballot. The primary difference between our Baseline calculations for 2022 and 2024 is that the newer scores “replace” 2016 elections with 2024 races. So while Trump carried Salt Lake County by around 3 points in both years, the GOP candidates for governor, attorney general, auditor, and treasurer performed much better in the earlier cycle.
Four more evenly-divided counties are in California, including Orange County, the state’s third-largest. Pre-Trump, the county supported Republican presidential candidates for seven straight decades — this was the land of Ronald Reagan. But Hillary Clinton and Biden both carried it by 9 points, while Harris took it by 3 points. Democrats now have a 0.1-point advantage in Orange County according to Baseline, although Republicans (including 2024 Senate nominee Steve Garvey) continue to win downballot.
Merced, Riverside, and San Bernardino counties share a lot in common with each other. All three are majority-Hispanic. All three voted Clinton-Biden-Trump in the past three presidential elections. And all three shifted toward Republicans in the 2024 Baseline averages. Fittingly, Merced County anchors the 13th Congressional District, which is consistently one of the closest in the country: currently represented by Democrat Adam Gray, the district was decided by 187 votes in 2024 and 564 votes in 2022.
Regional Hubs and Educated Enclaves
Many mid-sized counties moved away from Democrats last November, but in the most competitive places, overall trends still favor the party. In particular, three counties with state capitals are evenly divided — although they took different paths to get there.
Kennebec County, Maine, which includes the capital, Augusta, historically favored Democrats. But it is now the Pine Tree State’s most competitive county, voting Trump-Biden-Trump in the past three elections, and Republicans consistently keep a half-point Baseline advantage. (Kennebec is also the only county split between Maine’s two congressional districts, with the northern portion containing the hyper-competitive 2nd Congressional District.)
Trump carried Sangamon County, Ill. — ancestral GOP turf containing Springfield — three times. But his margin in 2024 was 4 points thinner than eight years earlier — and the county’s Baseline shifted 2 points toward Democrats in our update. Shawnee County, Kan., home to Topeka, is also razor-thin: Harris carried it by 407 votes, and the Baseline average narrowed from R+1.4 to R+0.1.
Other evenly-divided mid-sized counties have populations that are at least 70 percent white, with college attainment rates generally at or above the national level.
New Hanover County, N.C. (containing Wilmington), and Scott County, Iowa (containing Davenport), both flipped from Republicans to Democrats in the 2024 Baseline update. Pre-2016, Scott County generally backed Democrats for president while New Hanover County preferred Republicans. In both cases, the story seems to be less about recent realignment and more about perennial competition: both counties likely would have made frequent appearances on any “most evenly-divided” list going back to at least 2008.
Winnebago County, Ill., home to Rockville, is more right-leaning than other places of its size. And while Democratic presidential candidates have narrowly carried the county since Obama’s 2008 run, Republicans perform better downballot and now hold a 0.6-point Baseline advantage. The much-smaller Leelanau County, Mich., fits a similar mold — lurching from Trump+3 to Biden+5 to Harris+8. Affluent and aging, it is among Michigan’s most highly educated counties.
Likewise, a handful of competitive counties are dominated by major public or private universities.
These counties contribute strong youth and faculty turnout that can boost Democrats, even in red states: Latah County, Idaho (University of Idaho); McLean County, Ill. (Illinois State University); Monongalia County, W. Va. (West Virginia University); Oktibbeha County, Miss. (Mississippi State University); and St. Joseph County, Ind. (Notre Dame).
Persuadable Black and Native Voters
In counties across the Deep South where African Americans comprise a near-plurality or majority of residents, voters have anchored Democratic margins for generations. But support is never guaranteed: Trump’s share among Black voters improved by around 5 points in 2024.
For example, Crittenden County, Ark., is a longtime Democratic stronghold in the Memphis metro that has moved to the right with the state. Democratic margins in the last three presidential elections dropped from Clinton+9 to Biden+7 to Harris+2, and the party’s Baseline advantage fell by over half a point in the 2024 update.
On the Mississippi side of the Memphis metro is Marshall County, which voted for every Democratic presidential candidate since Jimmy Carter — that is, until 2024, when Trump triumphed by 7 points. Marshall County also flipped in Baseline, from D+3.4 in 2022 to R+0.5 in 2024.
This realignment pushes racially diverse counties that were already somewhat competitive to the top of our list.
On Mississippi’s southern border, Pike County is an ancestral bellwether that flipped from Biden to Trump by 4.5 points. Caddo Parish, La., is divided between the blue city of Shreveport and red rural towns. It’s been competitive for decades, but Democrats usually eke out wins, as reflected in the D+0.4 Baseline margin.
North Carolina’s Nash County, located in the highly competitive 1st Congressional District, is also swingy. Across the 15 Tar Heel statewide elections in 2024, eight Democrats and seven Republicans carried this county.
Then there’s Sumter County, Ga., a longtime presidential swing county — and the most evenly divided in the country according to Baseline. Here, the “advantage” truly is so small it could be a rounding error: the typical Republican leads the typical Democrat, 49.78-49.77 percent.
Finally, our list included two rural counties (and one county equivalent) with substantial Indigenous populations.
Roosevelt County, Mont., voted for every Democratic presidential nominee since Michael Dukakis before choosing Trump three times. But Democrats still enjoy support downballot, with former Sen. Jon Tester carrying Roosevelt County by 15 points in 2024. Mahnomen County — Minnesota’s only county located entirely within the borders of a Native American reservation — fits a similar profile.
Alaska’s Yukon-Koyukuk Census Area is the largest county equivalent in the United States by land area — and with just over 5000 residents, it has the lowest population of any evenly-divided county on this list. In recent cycles, the frigid census area has voted Democratic in statewide races while supporting Republican presidential candidates, explaining why its Baseline margin narrowed from R+5.4 in 2022 to R+0.7 in 2024.